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El romance de Europa con el renminbi

ROMA/MADRID – Los chinos están perdiendo confianza en su moneda. Frente a un crecimiento económico tambaleante, el Banco Popular de China ha incrementado sus esfuerzos por devolverle estabilidad al renminbi, apelando a sus vastas reservas extranjeras para respaldar su tipo de cambio y frenar el flujo de fondos que se van del país. El gobernador del PBOC, Zhou Xiaochuan, ha dicho en varias oportunidades que no hay motivos para una depreciación continua, pero pocos en el país parecen estar escuchando. Sólo en el último trimestre de 2015, la salida de capital llegó a 367.000 millones de dólares.

Y, sin embargo, la caída de la confianza al interior de China no ha impedido que Occidente -y Europa en particular- redoblaran su compromiso con la moneda. Cuando el Fondo Monetario Internacional anunció en diciembre que el renminbi se sumaría al dólar estadounidense, la libra británica, el euro y el yen japonés en la canasta de monedas que sustenta su unidad de cuenta, la canasta de Derechos Especiales de Giro (DEG), la decisión fue claramente política.

Son pocos los que dirían que el renminbi cumple con los criterios del FMI para ser incluido en la canasta de monedas de DEG. No es de libre convertibilidad y el acceso a la moneda es limitado dentro y fuera de China. Algunas sucursales extranjeras de bancos chinos ofrecen cuentas de depósito denominadas en renminbi e inversores calificados pueden comprar instrumentos de deuda asociados a la moneda en China continental. Pero el volumen es restringido.

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