Paul Lachine

El año de la indecisión europea

NUEVA YORK.– La grave situación económica en que se encontró inmersa la mayor parte de los países ricos en 2011 no resultó meramente de fuerzas económicas impersonales, sino en gran medida de las políticas implementadas, o no implementadas, por los líderes mundiales. De hecho, la notable unanimidad que prevaleció en la primera fase de la crisis financiera que comenzó en 2008, y que culminó con el rescate de $1 billón de dólares diseñado para la reunión en Londres del G-20 en abril de 2009, se disipó hace ya bastante tiempo. Ahora hay luchas burocráticas internas y errores por doquier.

Lo que resulta aún peor, los desacuerdos sobre las políticas coinciden en mayor o menor medida con las posturas nacionales. El centro del conservadurismo fiscal es Alemania, mientras que los países anglosajones aún se sienten atraídos por John Maynard Keynes. Esta división está complicando la cuestión enormemente, porque una intensa cooperación internacional es necesaria para corregir los desequilibrios mundiales que persisten en la raíz de la crisis.

Las dudas sobre la deuda soberana en Europa han girado alrededor del euro en tal medida que actualmente hay quienes se preguntan si la moneda única puede sobrevivir. Pero el euro ha sido una moneda incompleta desde el principio. El Tratado de Maastricht estableció una unión monetaria sin una unión política –un banco central común, pero no un tesoro común. Sus arquitectos eran conscientes de esta deficiencia, pero otros errores en su diseño solo quedaron a la vista luego del derrumbe de 2008.

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