La irresolución de Europa con vistas al nuevo año

BERLÍN – ¿Acabará en 2013 la crisis de la zona del euro o seguirá prolongándose durante todo el año y tal vez deteriorándose de nuevo? Es probable que ésa sea no sólo la pregunta decisiva para un mayor desarrollo de la Unión, sino también la cuestión fundamental que afecte los resultados de la economía mundial.

Si bien está claro que la UE necesita reformas, dos factores políticos exteriores son fundamentales para sus perspectivas en este año. El primero es el autoimpuesto precipicio fiscal de los Estados Unidos, que, si no se evita, podría hacer caer a ese país en una recesión, con repercusiones enormes para la economía mundial y, por tanto, para Europa. En segundo lugar, una guerra caliente en el golfo Pérsico, en la que Israel y los EE.UU. o los dos a la vez se enfrenten al Irán por su programa nuclear, tendría como resultado un rápido aumento de los precios mundiales de la energía.

Cualquiera de las dos situaciones hipotéticas agravaría en gran medida la crisis de Europa: unos precios del petróleo por las nubes u otra recesión en los EE.UU. dañarían incluso las fuertes economías de la Europa septentrional, por no hablar de los países ya deprimidos de la Europa meridional, pero incluso entonces lo más probable es que las consecuencias desde el punto de vista humanitario –en particular en el caso de otra guerra en Oriente Medio– eclipsarían las repercusiones en la crisis europea de dichas situaciones hipotéticas.

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