A Irresolução de Ano Novo da Europa

BERLIM – A crise da zona euro terminará em 2013, ou arrastar-se-á ao longo do ano, podendo mesmo piorar? Esta questão será provavelmente não apenas crucial para o desenvolvimento da União Europeia, mas também uma questão fundamental que afectará o desempenho da economia global.

Embora a UE necessite claramente de reformas internas, dois factores políticos externos serão fundamentais para as suas perspectivas deste ano. O primeiro é a auto-imposta falésia fiscal da América, que, se não for evitada, poderá atirar os Estados Unidos para uma recessão, com repercussões enormes ao nível da economia mundial, e consequentemente para a Europa. Segundo, uma guerra no Golfo Pérsico, em que Israel e/ou os EUA confrontem o Irão sobre o seu programa nuclear, teria como consequência um aumento acentuado dos preços globais da energia.

Qualquer um desses cenários agravaria a crise na Europa: o aumento dos custos do petróleo ou outra recessão nos EUA prejudicariam até as economias fortes do norte da Europa, para não falar dos países já deprimidos do sul da Europa. Mas, ainda assim, as consequências humanitárias – especialmente no caso de outra guerra no Médio Oriente – quase certamente suplantariam o impacto de qualquer um destes cenários sobre a crise europeia.

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