2013, une bonne année pour l'Europe ?

BERLIN – La zone euro va-t-elle éclater en 2013, ou bien survivre encore une année, tout en continuant probablement à se désagréger ? C'est non seulement une question cruciale pour l'avenir de l'UE, mais aussi pour celui de l'économie mondiale.

Hormis le besoin évident de réformes pour l'UE, deux facteurs politiques externes jouent également un rôle central dans ce qui va advenir cette année. Le premier est la "falaise budgétaire" américaine auto-infligée qui, si elle n'est pas évitée, pourrait plonger les USA dans la récession, avec des répercussions considérables pour l'économie mondiale et pour l'Europe. Le deuxième, c'est une guerre dans le Golfe persique, dans laquelle Israël et/ou les USA se confronteraient à l'Iran en raison de son programme nucléaire, ce qui conduirait à une flambée mondiale du prix de l'énergie.

Chacun de ces scénarios aggraverait considérablement la crise européenne : une hausse du cours du pétrole ou une nouvelle récession aux USA ébranlerait jusqu'aux économies des pays du nord de l'Europe, pour ne pas parler de ce qui adviendrait des pays du sud du continent dont l'économie est déjà en dépression. Mais les conséquences humanitaires d'une nouvelle guerre au Moyen-Orient feraient sans doute passer au second plan son impact sur la crise européenne.

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