La conexión francesa crucial para Europa

PARÍS – En los encarnizados debates sobre el futuro de la Unión Europea y la zona del euro, Alemania ocupa siempre el centro de la escena. Su economía es la de mayor tamaño: produce el 28% del PBI de la eurozona y alberga al 25% de su población. Su superávit de cuenta corriente es actualmente mayor que el de China, de hecho, es el mayor del mundo en valor absoluto. Y, si bien las mayorías ponderadas pueden anular sus decisiones sobre algunos temas, todos reconocen que poco puede lograrse en la eurozona a menos que Alemania esté de acuerdo.

Pero el énfasis en Alemania, si bien justificado, no debería subestimar el rol crítico de Francia. En Francia no solo se genera aproximadamente el 22% del PBI de la zona del euro y reside el 20% de su población –una cantidad solo menor a la de Alemania– también posee la demografía más saludable en la zona del euro, mientras que las estimaciones para la población alemana prevén disminuciones durante la próxima década.

Al mismo tiempo, el papel fundamental de Francia refleja más que su tamaño. De hecho, en términos de influencia sobre los resultados europeos, Francia es tan importante como Alemania, por tres motivos.

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