La French Connection essentielle de l'Europe

PARIS - Dans les débats qui font rage sur l'avenir de l'Union européenne et de la zone euro, l'Allemagne occupe toujours une place centrale. Elle a la plus grande économie, qui représente 28% du PIB de la zone euro et 25% de la population de la zone euro. Elle a un excédent de compte courant qui est maintenant plus fort que celui de la Chine – en fait, le plus grand du monde en valeur absolue. Et même si les majorités pondérées peuvent prendre l'ascendant sur elle pour certaines questions, tout le monde reconnaît que rien ne peut se faire dans la zone euro sans l'accord de l'Allemagne.

Mais l'accent mis sur l'Allemagne, s’il est justifié, ne doit pas conduire à sous-estimer le rôle essentiel de la France. La France, non seulement représente environ 22% du PIB de la zone euro et 20% de sa population, derrière l'Allemagne, mais a aussi la démographie la plus saine de la zone euro, alors que la population allemande devrait diminuer au cours de la prochaine décennie.

De même, le rôle crucial de la France implique un autre élément en dehors de sa taille. En effet, en termes d'influence sur les résultats en Europe, la France est aussi importante que l'Allemagne, pour trois raisons.

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