Los problemáticos vecinos de Europa

París – La geografía ha sido un regalo ambivalente para Europa. Por una parte, los europeos se pueden felicitar por estar a una distancia relativamente segura de las tensiones que puedan surgir con el ascenso de potencias como la India, Brasil y, en especial, China. Sin embargo, al sur y al este limita con dos grandes regiones que dan pie a importantes preocupaciones.

Hasta ahora, ni Rusia ni el mundo islámico se están adaptando bien a la globalización. Ambas economías siguen siendo excesivamente dependientes de la exportación de petróleo y gas. En Oriente Próximo, esto exacerba el problema de la creación de empleos para la creciente población de adultos jóvenes. Rusia también enfrenta dificultades demográficas, pero en la otra dirección, ya que se estima que su población de reducirá en hasta un 10% en los próximos 15 o 20 años.

A pesar de las comprensibles inquietudes de finlandeses, polacos y otros en Europa Central y del Este, de las dos, la relación con Rusia debería ser la más fácil de manejar. Desde el fin de la Guerra Fría las relaciones de Occidente con Rusia se han parecido al encuentro de dos placas tectónicas, una de las cuales va siendo empujada cada vez más por debajo de la otra. El conflicto de Georgia en 2008 fue el temblor que señaló una resistencia sustancial al movimiento hacia el este de la placa occidental.

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