欧洲的麻烦邻居

发自巴黎 —— 对于欧洲来说,自己所处的地理位置堪称是一把双刃剑。欧洲人庆幸自己离那些正在崛起的世界强权 —— 比如印度,巴西,尤其是中国 —— 足够远,因此也免予遭受这些大国崛起过程中所伴生的种种冲突。但与此同时,欧洲也与两个备受世界瞩目的区域为邻。

时至今日,无论是俄罗斯还是伊斯兰世界,都依然还是那副与全球化格格不入的样子。两者的经济都严重依赖石油和天然气出口。在中东地区,这催生了为庞大的年轻人口创造工作的难题。而对于俄罗斯来说,人口也是个令人头痛的问题,只不过恰巧与中东相反罢了,因为预计在未来 15 20 年内,俄罗斯人口总量将下降整整 10%

尽管芬兰,波兰以及其他中东欧国家的担心不无道理,但欧洲与俄罗斯的关系相对于欧洲 - 穆斯林关系还算是比较好处理的。自从冷战结束以后,欧俄之间的关系就像地球上两块挨在一起的大陆板块,不时你挤压一下我我挤压一下你。比如 2008 年的格鲁吉亚冲突就凸显出“俄罗斯板块”对“欧洲板块”东进运动的巨大反作用力。

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