Chris Van Es

La tripla minaccia dell’Europa

PALO ALTO – L’Europa si trova ad affrontare simultaneamente la crisi bancaria, valutaria e del debito sovrano. Le gravi difficoltà economiche e le pressioni politiche del contesto attuale gravano sulle relazioni tra cittadini, stati sovrani e istituzioni sovranazionali come la Banca Centrale Europea. Si chiede a gran voce di rinunciare alla sovranità fiscale, di avviare un processo di ricapitalizzazione del sistema bancario (al momento troppo vulnerabile da un punto di vista finanziario), e si preme affinché la Grecia, e possibilmente anche altri paesi membri dell’eurozona in difficoltà abbandonino l’euro (oppure affinché si crei un’unione monetaria di due livelli ad interim).

In questo contesto infuocato, i policymaker stanno al momento utilizzando tutti i mezzi a disposizione, compresi la BCE, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale ed il Meccanismo di Stabilità Finanziaria Europea, nel tentativo di arginare il panico finanziario, il contagio ed il rischio della recessione. Ma i funzionari stanno effettivamente procedendo nel modo giusto?

Il debito sovrano, bancario e la crisi dell’euro sono strettamente connessi. A causa del debito sovrano dei pacchetti azionari dei paesi periferici dell’eurozona, gran parte delle banche europee lievemente capitalizzate, si troverebbero ad essere insolventi se i loro beni fossero valutati secondo il mercato. Se da un lato il loro disinvestimento finalizzato alla riduzione della leva finanziaria non fa che inibire la ripresa economica, dall’altro le modifiche fiscali necessarie alla Grecia, all’Irlanda e al Portogallo, per non parlare di Spagna e Italia, finiranno per essere socialmente ed economicamente dirompenti. In questo contesto, l’inadempienza verrà quasi sicuramente accompagnata da una forte contrazione economica (in seguito al default del 2002, il PIL dell’Argentina è sceso del 15%).

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