Chris Van Es

Trojí hrozba pro Evropu

PALO ALTO – Evropa trpí současnými krizemi suverénních dluhů, bankovnictví a měny. Těžké hospodářské nesnáze a politické tlaky zasazují silné rány vztahům mezi občany, suverénními státy a nadnárodními institucemi, jako je Evropská centrální banka. Šíří se výzvy k rezignaci na fiskální suverenitu, k drastické rekapitalizaci finančně zranitelné bankovní soustavy, případně i k tomu, aby Řecko a možná i další problémové členské státy eurozóny opustily euro (nebo aby se zřídila prozatímní dvourychlostní měnová unie).

V tomto výbušném prostředí politici zoufale používají nejrůznější nástroje – včetně ECB, Mezinárodního měnového fondu a Evropského fondu finanční stability –, aby se pokusili zastavit finanční paniku, nákazu a riziko recese. Jdou však oficiální činitelé správným směrem?

Krize suverénních dluhů, bankovnictví a eura jsou úzce provázané. Vzhledem k tomu, že nedostatečně kapitalizované evropské banky drží velké objemy nekvalitních suverénních dluhů států z okraje eurozóny, byly by mnohé z nich nesolventní, kdyby se jejich aktiva účtovala v cenách „marked to market“. Jejich oddlužování zpomaluje hospodářské zotavení. A rozsáhlé fiskální úpravy, které se nutně musí provést v Řecku, Irsku, Portugalsku a možná i v Itálii a ve Španělsku, přinesou hospodářský a sociální rozvrat. Státní bankrot by pravděpodobně doprovázela těžká hospodářská kontrakce – po krachu Argentiny v roce 2002 kleslo HDP této země o 15%.

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