Chris Van Es

欧洲的三重威胁

发自帕罗奥图——欧洲正同时遭受着主权债务,银行以及货币危机的侵袭。严重的经济困局和政治压力正考验着公民,主权国家和类似欧洲央行这类超国家机构之间的关系。更有各种声音甚嚣尘上,既有要求放弃国家财政主权的,又有号召大幅重组在财务上极端脆弱的银行系统,同时/或许还有人要求希腊或者其他可能陷入困境的欧元区国家退出欧元(或者临时建立一个双重货币联盟)。

在这个岌岌可危的境地,政策制定者们正不顾一切地运用各类手段——包括欧洲央行,国际货币基金组织以及欧洲金融稳定基金——来试图遏制金融恐慌,扩散以及陷入衰退的风险。但这些官员们选择的道路又是否正确呢?

主权债务,银行以及欧元危机这三者其实是紧密相连的。由于欧洲许多资本薄弱的银行都忍痛持有大量欧元区边缘国家的主权债务,一旦其资产被推向市场的话就将面临破产。同时这些银行的去杠杆化过程还阻碍了经济复苏。而希腊,爱尔兰和葡萄牙等国(如果意大利和西班牙不包括在内的话)的大规模财政重整在经济和政治上都同样具有杀伤力。可能出现的违约将伴随着严重的经济规模收缩——2002年阿根廷发生违约时其GDP规模就随之下降了15%。

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