Tim Brinton

欧洲参加主权债务危机补习班

普林斯顿——一次危机就是一次学习的机会。过去的200年里,除了大萧条这个例外,历次大的金融危机都是在穷国和不稳定的国家爆发的,促使它们进行大规模的政策调整。如今,危机却是从富国开始的——不仅源自美国的次贷,而且还源自欧洲失控的银行和公债管理。那么,欧洲该吸取什么教训?这些教训对世界其他地方又有什么警示呢?

欧洲当前的问题同此前困扰世界经济边缘地带的问题惊人地类似。20世纪80年代的拉美、1997年的东亚,从一波又一波危机的沉痛教训中,有关国家提升了经济政策的水平,并且摸索出一套管理公共债务的行之有效的办法。如今,轮到欧洲来上这一课了。

欧洲的危机差不多走完了一个循环。最初的一场金融危机,随着政府介入,为银行负债担保,演变为一场经典意义上的公债危机。公债危机反过来又引起新的担忧——银行持有的所谓安全的政府债,头寸是不是太大了?国债似乎不再稳妥了。

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