Europas kurzer Urlaub

NEW YORK: Seit letztem November hat die Europäische Zentralbank unter ihrem neuen Präsidenten Mario Draghi die Leitzinsen gesenkt und dem Bankensystem der Eurozone zwei Liquiditätsspritzen im Umfang von über einer Billion Euro verabreicht. Dies hat zu einer zeitweisen Verringerung des finanziellen Drucks geführt, dem die gefährdeten Länder an der Peripherie der Eurozone (Griechenland, Spanien, Portugal, Italien und Irland) ausgesetzt sind, das Risiko eines massenhaften Liquiditätsabzugs aus dem Bankensystem der Eurozone drastisch verringert und die Finanzierungskosten für Italien und Spanien gegenüber dem nicht aufrecht zu erhaltenden Niveau vom letzten Herbst gesenkt.

Zugleich wurde ein technischer Zahlungsausfall Griechenlands vermieden, und das Land setzte eine erfolgreiche – wenn auch erzwungene – Restrukturierung seiner öffentlichen Schulden um. Ein neuer Fiskalpakt – und neue Regierungen in Griechenland, Italien und Spanien – stärkten die Hoffnung auf ein glaubwürdiges Bekenntnis zu Sparmaßnahmen und Strukturreformen. Und die Entscheidung, den neuen Rettungsfonds der Eurozone (ESM) mit dem alten (der Europäischen Finanzstabilitätsfazilität) zu verbinden, erhöhte die Größe der Brandmauer der Eurozone beträchtlich.

Doch der darauf folgende Honeymoon mit den Märkten erwies sich als kurzlebig. Die Zinsaufschläge für Italien und Spanien steigen wieder, während die Kreditkosten für Portugal und Griechenland die ganze Zeit hoch blieben. Und die Rezession am Rand der Eurozone vertieft sich und bewegt sich auf den Kern – Deutschland und Frankreich – zu. Tatsächlich wird sich die Rezession im Laufe dieses Jahres aus einer ganzen Reihe von Gründen verschärfen.

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