Europe’s Russia Question

BRUSELAS – ¿Amigo, enemigo o algo incómodamente entre ambos extremos? Esa es la pregunta que Europa se está haciendo acerca del Rusia, y Rusia acerca de una Europa que muestra renovados bríos. La elección por parte del Presidente Vladimir Putin de Dmitri Medvedev, Presidente de Gazprom, la compañía de gas que está comenzando a poner en dificultades el suministro energético de Europa, no hace más que dar mayor intensidad a esta pregunta.

Las relaciones entre Europa y Rusia se han venido deteriorando por varios años, pero los que alguna vez eran problemas económicos manejables, incluido el de la energía, ahora se están viendo agravados por diferencias políticas más volátiles. El riesgo es un clima de hostilidad abierta, con costes potencialmente mayores que durante el nadir de la Guerra Fría.

El punto de conflicto más obvio e inminente es Kosovo. Es probable que a principios del año próximo la mayoría de las naciones miembros de las Naciones Unidas reconozcan el enclave de mayoría albanesa en el extremo sur de Serbia como un estado independiente. De seguro, esto inflamará los ánimos no sólo de Serbia, sino también del Kremlin.

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