L'Europe et l'avenir de la planète

CAMBRIDGE – Cette année, lors du forum économique mondial de Davos c'est la montée en puissance de l'Asie qui était au centre de toutes les discussions. Un analyste asiatique estimait qu'en 2050 il y aura trois grandes puissances : les USA, la Chine et l'Inde. Il n'a pas mentionné l'Europe, pourtant c'est une erreur que de la sous-estimer.

Certes, aujourd'hui l'Europe est loin de peser de tout son poids. Dans un monde qui privilégie la force, elle est fragmentée, pacifique et normative, mais toute une partie du monde n'est pas régie par la puissance militaire. L'utilisation de la force parmi les pays développés et démocratiques est virtuellement impensable. Dans leurs relations entre eux , ces pays sont tous de Vénus, pour paraphraser Robert Kagan, c'est pourquoi l'attention que porte l'Europe à la législation et aux institutions constitue pour elle un atout.

En ce qui concerne les autres parties du monde, un récent sondage Pew montre que beaucoup d'Européens aimeraient que l'Europe joue un plus grand rôle. Mais faire contrepoids à la puissance militaire américaine supposerait de doubler ou de tripler les dépenses consacrées à la défense, ce à quoi peu d'Européens sont favorables. Néanmoins, une stratégie européenne efficace suppose d'investir davantage dans ce domaine.

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