Las penas de Europa son las alegrías de Estados Unidos

¿Es inminente la recuperación económica, como lo prometieron los líderes del G8, el grupo de los países más ricos del mundo que la semana pasada celebró su reunión anual en Evian, Francia? En el firmamento de la economía hay muchas estrellas alineadas para la recuperación, tanto en Estados Unidos como en Europa.

Los precios del petróleo están bajando de las alturas que alcanzaron durante la guerra de Irak y, según las previsiones más plausibles, deberían bajar aún más. Los inversionistas de todo el mundo se están recuperando del nerviosismo que les provocaran las situaciones de Brasil, Enron e Irak. La prima por riesgo está bajando, haciendo subir los precios de las acciones y disminuyendo la rentabilidad de los bonos de largo plazo.

Más aún, el remanente del exceso de capital que se acumuló durante la locura del boom tecnológico de los 90 está casi completamente agotado. Las tasas de inversión han estado bajas por tres años consecutivos. Hoy sólo unos pocos sectores sufren de exceso de acumulación de capital. Las empresas están listas para invertir nuevamente.

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