Europas Fleiß, Amerikas Preis

Steht eine Erholung der Wirtschaft bevor, so wie es die Staats- und Regierungschefs der G8, der Gruppe der reichsten Länder der Welt, versprochen haben, die letzte Woche zu ihrem jährlichen Treffen in Evian, Frankreich, zusammengekommen sind? Viele Stars der Wirtschaft blicken tatsächlich in Richtung Gesundung, sowohl in den USA als auch in Europa.

Die Höchstwerte der Ölpreise während des Irakkrieges sinken und bewegen sich, plausiblen Szenarien zufolge, möglicherweise sogar noch weiter abwärts. Investoren weltweit erholen sich von ihrem großen Brasilien-Enron-Irak-Zittern. Die Risikoprämie sinkt, treibt Aktienpreise in die Höhe und verringert Renditen für langfristige Anleihen.

Hinzukommt, dass der Überhang an Kapitalüberschüssen, der sich während des irren Hightech-Booms der Neunziger Jahre ansammelte, mittlerweile zum großen Teil bereinigt wurde. Die Investitionsquoten sind drei Jahre in Folge gering gewesen. Jetzt gibt es nur noch wenige Sektoren, die unter einem Überhang an Kapitalbildung leiden. Die Firmen sind wieder bereit zu investieren.

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