Reprise en Amérique, crise en Europe ?

La reprise est-elle pour bientôt comme l'ont promis récemment les dirigeants du G8, le groupe des pays les plus riches du monde, lors de leur réunion annuelle à Evian ? On pourrait le croire, puisque les indicateurs économiques sont au vert, tant en Europe qu'aux USA.

Après une hausse durant la guerre en Irak, le prix du pétrole est à la baisse et on peut s'attendre à ce que cette tendance se prolonge. Partout, les investisseurs se remettent du traumatisme que leur ont infligé les crises Brésil-Enron-Irak. Les primes de risque baissent, entraînant une hausse des actions et une diminution du rendement des obligations à long terme.

Autre élément, la surabondance de capitaux qui se sont accumulés durant la folie high-tech des années 1990 est pour l'essentiel résorbée. Les taux d'investissement ont été faibles durant trois ans, mais aujourd'hui seuls quelques secteurs souffrent d'une accumulation excessive de capital et les entreprises sont à nouveau prêtes à investir.

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