Nový evropský Donald Rumsfeld

Volby do ruské dumy letos v prosinci téměř jistě zacementují moc sil věrných Vladimíru Putinovi. Výsledek zřejmě potvrdí vynoření Ruska coby nejrozvratnější otázky v Evropské unii od doby, kdy Donald Rumsfeld rozdělil kontinent na „starou“ a „novou“ Evropu. V 90. letech 20. století bylo pro členské země EU snadné se na společném přístupu k Rusku dohodnout. Byly zajedno ohledně strategie demokratizace slabého a zadluženého Ruska a jeho přiblížení Západu.

Tato politika je teď v troskách. Prudce rostoucí ceny ropy a plynu posílily moc Ruska a oslabily jeho touhu spolupracovat i zájem připojit se k Západu. Dnes se Evropané nedokáží shodnout nad postatou ruského režimu, natož nad politikou, již by měli vůči němu přijmout.

Část tohoto zmatení spočívá v Putinově dovedné politické profilaci. Na jedné straně potřebuje maximalizovat kontrolu nad ekonomikou a společností, aby zvyšoval mzdy a penze a držel oponenty mimo hru, a zároveň pečovat o dalekosáhlou pravomoc jmenovat kandidáty do úřadů, která jej drží u moci. Na druhou stranu moskevská elita – která se obává, že by jednou nějaká vláda mohla zabavit její majetky – se chce vyhnout postavení mezinárodního vyvrhele, aby v případě potřeby prožila soumrak svých dní v bezpečí Západu.

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