Paul Lachine

El “cordón sanitario” monetario de Europa

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Al ministro alemán de Hacienda, Wolfgang Schäuble, le gusta criticar a otros gobiernos, incluido el de los Estados Unidos, por sus políticas “irresponsables”. Resulta irónico que hayan sido las indiscreciones del Gobierno alemán las que hayan colocado a Europa al borde de otra crisis de la deuda.

Como reacción ante la comprensible actitud airada del público contra los rescates de bancos y países endeudados financiados por los contribuyentes, los alemanes  están pidiendo –y con razón– mecanismos que permitan un “reparto más amplio de la carga”, lo que significaría pérdidas para los acreedores. Sin embargo, sus nuevas propuestas, que dan a entender, extrañamente, que las suspensiones de pagos pueden producirse sólo después de mediados de 2013, desafían la economía básica de las suspensiones de pagos de las deudas.

Los alemanes deberían recordar el último episodio de suspensión de pagos generalizada de deuda soberana: la de América Latina en el decenio de 1970. Aquella experiencia mostró que los países suspenden pagos cuando los costos resultan inferiores a los beneficios. Declaraciones alemanas recientes han colocado a países europeos decisivos muy cerca de esa tesitura.

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