Paul Lachine

Europas geldpolitischer Cordon Sanitaire

WASHINGTON, DC – Der deutsche Finanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble kritisiert gerne andere Regierungen, einschließlich die der Vereinigten Staaten, für ihre „unverantwortliche“ Politik. Paradoxerweise ist es allerdings das unreflektierte Gerede der deutschen Regierung, das Europa an den Rand einer weiteren Schuldenkrise gebracht hat.

Als Reaktion auf den verständlichen öffentlichen Widerstand gegen die vom Steuerzahler finanzierten Rettungen von Banken und verschuldeten Ländern, fordern die Deutschen vernünftigerweise Mechanismen, die einen umfangreicheren „Lastenausgleich“ ermöglichen – damit meinen sie Verluste für die Gläubiger. Doch ihre neuen Vorschläge, die in bizarrer Weise implizieren, dass Staatsbankrotte erst nach dem ersten Halbjahr 2013 eintreten können, missachten die ökonomischen Grundregeln von Zahlungsausfällen.

Die Deutschen sollten an die letzte Episode ausgedehnter Staatsbankrotte denken – nämlich jene in Lateinamerika der 1970er Jahre. Diese Erfahrung zeigte, dass Länder Zahlungen einstellen, wenn die Kosten dafür geringer sind als der damit verbundene Nutzen. Die jüngsten Äußerungen aus Deutschland haben wichtige europäische Ökonomien diesem Punkt entscheidend näher gebracht.

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