Poslední velká šance pro Evropu

STANFORD – Rezignace řeckého premiéra Jorgose Papandrea a italského premiéra Silvia Berlusconiho výrazně upozornily na to, jak Řecko, Itálie a mnohé další země příliš dlouho zastíraly dlouhotrvající problémy svých přebujelých veřejných sektorů s neudržitelnými dávkami sociálního zabezpečení. Smysluplná reforma je už dnes pro řadu těchto zemí skutečně nevyhnutelná.

Systémy sociálního zabezpečení v Evropě, stejně jako ve Spojených státech, Japonsku a jinde, byly oproti dnes převažujícím podmínkám nastaveny za značně odlišných ekonomických a demografických okolností – za svižnějšího hospodářského růstu, rostoucích počtů obyvatel a nižší naděje dožití. Vlády (pozornost se momentálně upírá na Řecko a Itálii, ale nejsou samy) slibovaly příliš mnoho, příliš mnoha příjemcům a příliš dlouho. Má kniha Too Many Promises (Příliš mnoho slibů) z roku 1986 poukazovala na tentýž neduh amerického systému sociálního zabezpečení.

Tento zásadní problém se teď projevil neudržitelnou dluhovou dynamikou těchto zemí. Členství v euru, které přechodně umožnilo rozsáhlé půjčky za nízkých úrokových sazeb, jej ještě zhoršilo.

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