Paul Lachine

欧洲债务减记不可避免

伯克利——“那只不过是希腊危机”,“那只不过是希腊和爱尔兰的危机”,人们曾经那样以为,可是现在不行了,因为那显然已经是一场欧元区的危机。要对付它,比通常料想的既更容易,又更困难。

这场危机的经济学道理相当简单。希腊的财政有问题。爱尔兰的银行业有问题。葡萄牙的私债市场有问题。西班牙在上述三方面都有问题。尽管细节各异,结论是一样的:这几个国家都得经受痛苦的削减开支的过程。

要抵消紧缩政策的副作用,通常的办法是把国内减支和本币贬值结合起来。贬值会增强出口竞争力,也就是拿外需来补内需。

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