Paul Lachine

أوروبا والتقليم الحتمي

بيركلي ـ إن ما كان بوسعنا في وقت ما أن نعتبره ببساطة أزمة يونانية، أو أزمة يونانية وأيرلندية، تحول الآن بوضوح إلى أزمة تشمل عموم منطقة اليورو. والواقع أن حل هذه الأزمة أسهل ـ وأكثر صعوبة في الوقت عينه ـ مما هو مفترض بشكل شائع.

إن الاقتصاد في غاية البساطة حقا. فاليونان تواجه أزمة ميزانية، وأيرلندا تعاني من مشكلة مصرفية، والبرتغال تعاني من مشكلة الديون الخاصة، وأسبانيا مبتلاة بمزيج من المشاكل الثلاث. ولكن على الرغم من اختلاف التفاصيل فإن العواقب واحدة: فقد بات لزاماً على هذه البلدان الآن أن تتحمل خفضاً مؤلماً إلى حد لا يطاق للإنفاق.

والوسيلة المعتادة للتخفيف من التأثيرات المترتبة على التقشف هي المزاوجة بين التخفيضات المحلية وخفض قيمة العملة. ويعمل خفض قيمة العملة على إكساب الصادرات المزيد من القدرة على المنافسة، وبالتالي الاستعاضة عن الطلب المحلي المنكمش بالطلب الخارجي.

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