Le Pari historique de l’Europe

BERKELEY – Sur les onze ans de vie de l’euro, ces dernières semaines représentent une période des plus intéressantes, une période capitale. Tout a commencé avec la crise grecque, suivie du rachat de la Grèce. Lorsque la crise s’est étendue au Portugal et à l’Espagne, il y a eu le fameux plan de sauvetage de mille milliards de dollars. Finalement, il y a cet achat sans précédent d’obligations espagnoles, portugaises, grecques et irlandaises par la Banque centrale européenne. Un mois plus tôt, tout ceci aurait été inimaginable.

Cette quinzaine mirabilis en Europe a aussi été l’occasion de prédictions stupéfiantes – par surcroît erronées. La Grèce serait chassée de l’union monétaire. La zone euro serait divisée en deux unions européennes (une au Nord et une au Sud). L’euro – voire l’ensemble de l’Union européenne – se désintègrerait puisque l’Allemagne lui tournerait le dos.

Au lieu de coucher leurs cartes, les responsables européens ont néanmoins doublé la mise. Ils sont conscients du prix exorbitant à payer si leur pari s’avère erroné. Ils savent que leur carrière politique dépend de leur incroyable pari. Ils ont aussi très bien compris qu’il y avait trop de jetons dans le pot pour se coucher.

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