Europas Vabanquespiel

CAMBRIDGE – Der griechische Staat muss einer unmöglichen, anders nicht mehr zu bewältigenden  Situation entkommen. Die Staatsschulden sind auf untragbarem Niveau (150 Prozent des BIP, wobei der Anstieg allein in diesem Jahr 10 Prozentpunkte betrug). Die Wirtschaft bricht zusammen (das BIP ist heuer um über 7 Prozent gesunken, wodurch die Arbeitslosigkeit auf 16 Prozent stieg). Der Staat leidet unter einem chronischen Zahlungsbilanzdefizit (aktuell bei 8 Prozent des BIP) und insolventen Banken, denen rapide die Einlagen abhanden kommen.

Der einzige Ausweg für Griechenland ist, den Schuldendienst einzustellen. Wenn das geschieht, müssen mindestens 50 Prozent des Nennwerts dieser Schulden abgeschrieben werden. Der aktuelle Plan, den Barwert der privat gehaltenen Anleihen um 20 Prozent zu reduzieren, ist nur ein erster Schritt in diese Richtung.

Wenn Griechenland nach einer Pleite den Euro verlässt, kann es seine neue Währung abwerten, um so die Nachfrage anzukurbeln und letztlich zu einem Handelsbilanzüberschuss zu gelangen. Eine derartige Strategie der „Pleite und Abwertung“ ist für Länder in anderen Teilen der Welt die Norm, wenn sie mit untragbar hohen Staatsschulden und einem chronischen Leistungsbilanzdefizit kämpfen. In Griechenland kann das nicht geschehen, weil Griechenland in der Einheitswährung gefangen ist.  

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