欧洲的高危赌博

发自剑桥——希腊政府需要摆脱的是一个完全没有其他活路可走的困境。它拥有一个棘手的政府负债(相当于GDP的150%,今年内已经递增了10%),一个陷入崩溃的经济(随着GDP下跌了7%,失业率上升到16%),一个长期存在的政府收支赤字(目前相当于GDP的8%),以及一批资不抵债且在迅速流失存款的银行。

而希腊唯一的活路就是实施主权债务违约。一旦采取该行动,它必须将全部债务的本金削减至少50%。而目前试图将私人持有债券现值削减20%的计划只是为实现这一目标而首先迈出的一小步而已。

如果希腊在违约之后脱离了欧元区,它就可以把自己的新货币贬值,从而刺激需求并最终转变为贸易顺差。这么一个“违约并贬值”的策略对于世界其他国家来说已经是标准动作了,一旦遭遇无法偿还的巨额政府债务以及长期经常账户逆差,他们就会照此办理。而这个情况之所以没有在希腊身上发生就是因为希腊被单一货币捆住了手脚。

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