El dominó de la ruina de Europa

BRUSELAS – El miedo al contagio se ha propagado por Europa. Muchos ven a Grecia como la primera pieza del dominó que potencialmente caerá en un escenario que se desarrolla así: las medidas de austeridad griegas no son suficientes, la crisis de la deuda se profundiza y el riesgo de un incumplimiento de pago soberano se extiende a otras economías europeas. Mientras caen las piezas del dominó griego, países como Portugal, España o Italia empiezan a tambalear, y una pequeña crisis económica se convierte en una calamidad europea importante.

Esta visión sugiere que otros países podrían verse obligados a salir corriendo a ayudar a sus “hermanos en armas” europeos –no importa si Berlín u otras capitales lo deseen o no-. Llegado el caso, la crisis de deuda soberana podría afectar la economía real, y Europa terminaría en un círculo vicioso de déficits aún mayores, tasas de crecimiento más bajas, estallido del desempleo y decreciente competitividad.

Obviamente, éste es el escenario que todos –con la posible excepción de algunos especuladores- quieren evitar. Y, después de que la reciente cumbre de la UE acordara un plan de rescate  como “último argumento” para los países de la eurozona que enfrenten el peligro del incumplimiento de pago, hay muchas probabilidades de que no se materialice. Pero la teoría prevalente del dominó es incompleta. La crisis podría tener efectos de derrame a nivel social y político que van mucho más allá del terreno económico.

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