欧洲的噩运多米诺骨牌

发自布鲁塞尔——对连锁崩溃的恐惧已经弥漫了整个欧洲,而许多人则将希腊视为整个多米诺骨牌效应的起点,并假设出如下情景:首先,希腊的开支缩减措施未能凑效,接着债务危机不断深入,随后主权违约风险扩散到了欧洲其他国家。在希腊这块骨牌轰然倒塌之后,葡萄牙,西班牙或者意大利等也开始摇摇欲坠,一个小国的危机至此将演变成一场席卷全欧的巨大灾难。

这种观点意味着其它国家可能要被迫立刻去拯救他们的“欧洲兄弟”——不管柏林当局或者其它政府是否乐意。最终,主权债务危机将波及实体经济,而整个欧洲则陷入一个悲剧性的死循环之中:赤字持续升高,增长率低迷,失业率激增,竞争力却不断下滑。

很显然,这个情景是每个人都不愿意看到的(当然某些投机者除外)。而虽然最近欧洲峰会表决通过了一项针对那些面临主权违约的欧元区国家的“最终比率”拯救计划,但该计划很可能将无法付诸实施。但当前流行的多米诺理论还未能涵盖全部问题,因为这场危机所产生的溢出效应是必然会超出经济领域之外的。

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