La solución del cuatro por ciento para Europa

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Éste es un verano transcendental para Europa, porque tanto la zona del euro como la Unión Europea podrían estar en peligro de desintegrarse, pese a los importantes pasos dados hacia una unión bancaria y la recapitalización directa de los bancos españoles adoptada en la reunión celebrada en junio por los dirigentes de la zona del euro. Se está retrasando la aplicación de las reformas propuestas; en Alemania puede haber impugnaciones legales del Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad y los Países Bajos y Finlandia parecen estar dando marcha atrás sobre algunas partes del acuerdo.

Aun en la peor de las hipótesis, algún grado de cooperación intraeuropea sobrevivirá sin lugar a dudas, pero resulta difícil ver cómo podría sobrevivir la UE, tal como la conocemos, a incluso una desintegración parcial de la zona del euro.

Quienes sostienen que uno o más países de la periferia de la zona del euro deben tomarse unas “vacaciones” del euro subestiman las repercusiones económicas y políticas de semejante iniciativa. Si dos o tres países tuvieran que abandonarla, la sensación de fracaso, la pérdida de confianza y los daños infligidos a tantos perturbarían a toda la Unión.

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