A Solução 4% da Europa

WASHINGTON, DC - Este Verão é extremamente importante para a Europa, porque tanto a zona euro como a União Europeia podem estar em perigo de se desfazer, embora, no passado mês de Julho, durante a reunião dos líderes da zona euro, tenham sido dados passos importantes para uma união bancária e para a recapitalização directa dos bancos espanhóis. A implementação das reformas propostas está a atrasar-se; o Mecanismo Europeu de Estabilidade poderá vir a enfrentar desafios de carácter jurídico na Alemanha e os Países Baixos e a Finlândia parecem estar a recuar em algumas partes do acordo.

Mesmo na pior das hipóteses, algum grau de cooperação intra-europeia irá com certeza sobreviver. Mas é difícil antever de que forma poderá a União Europeia, tal como a conhecemos, sobreviver a uma desintegração, ainda que parcial, da zona euro.

Aqueles que defendem que um ou mais países periféricos da zona euro deviam "tirar umas férias" do euro estão a subestimar as repercussões económicas e políticas que essa acção implicaria. Se dois ou três países tivessem que sair, a sensação de fracasso, a perda de confiança e os danos causados iriam abalar toda a União Europeia.

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