Europa moet tijdelijk een hogere inflatie toestaan

WASHINGTON, DC – Dit is een cruciale zomer voor Europa. Zowel de eurozone als de Europese Unie lopen het risico uiteen te vallen, ondanks de belangrijke stappen die zijn gezet in de richting van een bankenunie en de rechtstreekse herkapitalisering van de Spaanse banken, waartoe op een vergadering van de leiders van de eurozone in juni is besloten. De tenuitvoerlegging van de voorgestelde hervormingen laat op zich wachten; in Duitsland bestaan  juridische bezwaren tegen het Europees Stabiliteits Mechanisme (het Europese noodfonds) en Nederland en Finland lijken op sommige onderdelen van de afspraken te willen terugkomen.

Zelfs in het slechtst denkbare scenario zou een zekere mate van inter-Europese samenwerking overeind blijven. Maar het is moeilijk in te zien hoe de Europese Unie zoals we die kennen ook maar een gedeeltelijke desintegratie van de eurozone zou kunnen overleven.

Zij die betogen dat één of meer landen uit de periferie van de eurozone de euro – tijdelijk - vaarwel zouden moeten zeggen, onderschatten zowel de economische als de politieke repercussies van zo'n stap. Het gevoel van mislukking, het verlies aan vertrouwen en de schade die zovelen zou worden toegebracht als twee of drie landen moeten vertrekken, zou de hele Europese Unie op haar grondvesten doen schudden.

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