George Segal breadline sculpture Jennuine Captures/Flickr

大萧条的支持者

伯克利—在至今仍未结束的此次经济危机爆发早期,我曾经说过一些话,它们赢得过喝彩,常常招来笑声,并且永远给人们乐观的理由。我说,从欧洲和美国在20世纪30年代的经验看,决策者不会重蹈他们的前辈在大萧条期间的覆辙。这一回,他们会犯下新的、不同的、但愿程度更小的错误。

不幸的是,这一预言看来是错误的。欧元区的决策者不但铁心重蹈20世纪30年代覆辙,还要以更残酷、更激烈、规模更大地重蹈覆辙。我没有料到会这样。

2010年希腊债务危机爆发时,我认为历史教训是如此显而易见,解决方案应该非常直观。逻辑十分清楚。如果希腊不是欧元区成员,其最好的选择将是违约、重组债务和货币贬值。但是,由于欧盟不希望希腊退出欧元区(这将是作为政治工程的欧盟的一次重大挫折),希腊本应该获得足够的援助、支持、债务豁免和偿付协助,以抵消任何它可能从退出货币联盟中获得的好处。

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