woman at ATM Milos Bicanski | Stringer via getty images

Mentiras, malditas mentiras, e as estatísticas do crescimento europeu

ATENAS – “A Grécia regressou, finalmente, ao crescimento económico”. Este era o enredo oficial da União Europeia no final de 2014. Infelizmente, os eleitores gregos, não impressionados com este júbilo, destituíram o governo em exercício de funções e, em janeiro de 2015, votaram por uma nova administração na qual desempenhei a função de ministro das Finanças.

Na semana passada, relatórios jubilosos semelhantes foram emanados de Bruxelas, anunciando o “regresso ao crescimento” em Chipre, e contrastando esta “boa” notícia com o “regresso à recessão” da Grécia ". A mensagem da troika de credores do resgate europeu - a Comissão Europeia, o Banco Central Europeu e do Fundo Monetário Internacional - é clara e dita em alta voz: “Façam o que mandarmos, como Chipre fez, e irão recuperar. Resistam às nossas políticas, elegendo pessoas como Varoufakis, e irão sofrer as consequências de mais recessão”.

É uma história poderosa. Só que ela tem como base uma mentira dissimulada. A Grécia não estava a recuperar em 2014 e o rendimento nacional de Chipre ainda não recuperou. As reivindicações da UE em sentido contrário são baseadas num foco inadequado no “verdadeiro” rendimento nacional, um limite métrico para induzir em erro durante os períodos de queda de preços.

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