woman at ATM Milos Bicanski | Stringer via getty images

Mensonges, fichus mensonges et statistiques de croissance en Europe

ATHENES – « La Grèce a enfin renoué avec la croissance économique. » Ainsi titrait un communiqué officiel de l'Union européenne à la fin de 2014. Hélas, les électeurs grecs, sans se laisser impressionner par cette réjouissance, ont évincé le gouvernement en place et, en janvier 2015, ont voté pour une nouvelle administration dont j’ai occupé la fonction de ministre des finances.

La semaine dernière, de nouveaux rapports tout aussi enthousiastes ont émané de Bruxelles pour annoncer le « retour à la croissance » de la Chypre, et opposer cette « bonne » nouvelle avec le « retour à la récession » de la Grèce. Le message de la troïka des prêteurs de sauvetage européens – la Commission européenne, la Banque centrale européenne et le Fonds monétaire international – est fort et clair: « Faites ce que nous disons, comme l’a fait Chypre, et vous récupérerez. Opposez-vous à nos politiques, en élisant des gens comme Varoufakis, et vous subirez les conséquences d'une nouvelle récession ».

Il s’agit d’une histoire convaincante. Sauf qu'elle est construite sur un mensonge hypocrite. La Grèce ne se rétablissait pas en 2014, et le revenu national de Chypre n'a pas encore récupéré. Les affirmations contraires de l'UE sont basées sur une concentration inappropriée sur le revenu « réel » national, une mesure qui est vouée à induire en erreur lors de périodes de baisse des prix.

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