Economics

必要的移民

Sep 7, 2015 Ian Buruma

柏林——球迷高举横幅欢迎饱受战争蹂躏的中东难民，踏上德国的土地是如此感人至深。德国是绝望及受压迫者、战争和掠夺幸存者崭新的乐土。

就连德国不常做好事的流行小报都表示愿意帮助难民。当英国和其他国家的政客撮着手解释为什么就连数量相对较少的叙利亚、利比亚和伊拉克或厄立特里亚难民都对其社会结构构成致命威胁的时候，“默克尔妈妈”却承诺德国不会拒绝任何真正的难民。

预计今年将有约800,000名难民进入到德国境内，而英国首相戴维·卡梅伦却为不到 30,000份庇护申请大惊小怪，不怀好意地警告穿越北海的“大批人群”。而且和默克尔不同的是，卡梅伦要为煽动利比亚战争，导致数百人民众生活无法忍受承担一定的责任。难怪默克尔希望其他欧洲国家在强制配额制度下接收更多的难民。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 27 Comments on this article

Enrique Woll Battistini Sep 16, 2015

I propose this in the financial and socioeconimic reforms areas:

https://www.academia.edu/12823841/Mathematical_Model_and_Simulation_for_A_Partnership_for_Development_with_the_United_States_of_America_-_December_1999
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Enrique Woll Battistini Sep 16, 2015

The difference in economic potential between poor countries and rich countries, the developing countries and the developed countries, non-OECD countries and OECD countries, Third and Fourth World countries and First and Second World countries, that people are subjected to, is akin to differences in hydraulic or electrical potential and its effects on matter in the physical world: they move people to action, to economic migration, and given the political turbulence of our times, religious persecution, and the extreme polarization of national income levels and ditribution, and wealth accumulation, they move people to seek refuge abroad, despite the terrible suffering and often deadly consequences that such action entails. The situation in Europe Vs. Africa and the Middle East is not essentially different than that prevailing in the Americas, in South and Central America Vs. North America, with high-potential countries like the USA, Canada and Mexico, exerting a powerful pull on the Southern poor, much like in magnetism and electrical phenomena, which move matter along the locus of such differneces in potential. The compassion Germany is showing the African and Middle Eastern refugees, and its generally receptive attitude towards economic migrants is not only meritorious, but crucially necessary and mutually convenient. Thus it is intelligent. In any case, though migration regulations, mostly immigration regulations, need to be effective, wise and enforced, they, at best, in circumstances like today's, constitute a mere paper wall, incapable of containment action, that given enough pressure, even and especially from the sheer threat of physical force implied by hundreds of thousands of desperate people on the move, will not serve to reduce and less even stop the flow of refugees, but rather, will collapse, especially if they are enforced through aggressive repression tactics that solve no problem and serve no sustainable purpose. The solution lies at home, where the problems lie, such as hunger, disease, unemployment, and political and religious persecution. And it implies broad ranging political, religious, and socioeconomic reforms.
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Peter Lintner Sep 15, 2015

I wonder when will those who are most concerned with this massive influx of migrants, that is the european citizens, asked whether they agree with this policy. We know by know that all the media, all the "experts", all the business, all the "human rights" activists, UN etc support and actively work on flooding the West with immigrants. Will european citizens finally have a say? Is West still a democracy?

Id rather live in ageing and poor Europe which is still Europe than in a rich and young multicultural "melting pot" where I increasingly feel like a foreigner. In my own country, on my own continent.
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Ugo Sirtori Sep 15, 2015

Really amusing. Who knows if the author thinks it's also heartworming that Germany has already closed its borders.
But the biggest hypocrisis is that for the author is very fine that millions of desperate people are forced to leave their home because of war and starvation, just to come to Europe and work for cheap salary. Very humanitarian.
Even if we take for good that they all are good guys, hard workers and completely honest, I'm wondering what good they can do for low-middle class europeans, by competing for the same jobs while unemployment in Europe (except Germany) is very high.
I'm stunned to see a professor in "human rights" delighted by such an outcome of the present international situation.
As for european demographic crisis, it's strange nobody is proposing the obvious: pro-families fiscal policies.
France, a country with possibly the most advanced pro-family policies, is actually in good demographical shape.
So, instead of 2 solutions for 2 problems, Baruma proposes 1 single patch that "coincidentally" doesn't do any good for the victims, but is good for cheap manpower and little trouble for US foreign policy.
Very humanitarian of him.
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Peter Schaeffer Sep 14, 2015

A few more quotes should show how absurd Buruma's obsession with "cheap" (tax payer financed) labor and a borderless world really is.

From "Sweden’s ugly immigration problem" (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/swedens-ugly-immigration-problem/article26338254/)

"In Sweden, where equality is revered, inequality is now entrenched. Forty-two per cent of the long-term unemployed are immigrants, Mr. Sanandaji said. Fifty-eight per cent of welfare payments go to immigrants. Forty-five per cent of children with low test scores are immigrants. Immigrants on average earn less than 40 per cent of Swedes. The majority of people charged with murder, rape and robbery are either first- or second-generation immigrants. “Since the 1980s, Sweden has had the largest increase in inequality of any country in the OECD,” Mr. Sanandaji said."

Imported rape, murder, robbery, unemployment, and welfare dependency are going to save Europe's welfare states? Who is kidding who?
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Peter Schaeffer Sep 14, 2015

Like it or not, Buruma isn't troubling himself or his readers with truth. The illegals ("migrants") coming to Europe are about as necessary as a migraine headache. The sad truth is that far from being an economic panacea, the illegals coming to Europe will be a cradle to grave burden. See "Look North, Chancellor Merkel" (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/423935/look-north-chancellor-merkel-andrew-stuttaford). A few quotes should help.

"Sweden takes in more refugees per capita than any other European country, and immigrants – mainly from the Middle East and Africa – now make up about 16 per cent of the population. The main political parties, as well as the mainstream media, support the status quo. Questioning the consensus is regarded as xenophobic and hateful. Now all of Europe is being urged to be as generous as Sweden. So how are things working out in the most immigration-friendly country on the planet? Not so well, says Tino Sanandaji. Mr. Sanandaji is himself an immigrant, a Kurdish-Swedish economist who was born in Iran and moved to Sweden when he was 10. He has a doctorate in economics from the University of Chicago and specializes in immigration issues. This week I spoke with him by Skype. “There has been a lack of integration among non-European refugees,” he told me. Forty-eight per cent of immigrants of working age don’t work, he said. Even after 15 years in Sweden, their employment rates reach only about 60 per cent. Sweden has the biggest employment gap in Europe between natives and non-natives. From Davos to Brussels, the conventional wisdom is that a massive influx of immigrants is needed to prop up Europe’s welfare states. Unexplained is how the unemployed are meant to pay for the pensions of the retired."

Buruma worships illegals because of his allegiance to the cheap labor kleptocracy and his own devotion to the fantasy of a borderless world. Saner folks should remember that a nation without borders dies.
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D. V. Gendre Sep 14, 2015

No doubt these people from syria need help. But it is highly doubtful whether a (deliberate) mix-up - by Mr. Buruma - of war refugees, asylum seekers and immigrants is appropriate to underscore the arguments in this article.
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jagjeet sinha Sep 13, 2015

Wondering why the Rest-of-the-World (RoW) appears not as homo sapiens but from Planet Mars.
Despite Global Religions, despite Global Institutions, despite Enlightenment.
It was only 300 years ago that history changed, geography changed.
America Canada and Australia were subject to Migration that created The Anglosphere.
Migration has a macroeconomic dimension - as The Anglosphere became the World's Economic Heartlands.
To the "Indians", the adventures of RoW in their geography must have been as appalling as RoW now in Europe.
Trying to escape meltdowns at home, the migrants are looking for "Their Anglosphere" - salvation from meltdown.
Eastern European fundamental needs after 1991 was Migration within the Union - "Their Anglosphere".
The Alchemy that harnesses the energy released due Migration is indeed always a blessing that transforms.
But when the narrative freezes man-made boundaries, it is time for Mankind to change its mind.
Because for his home to have become inhumane and uninhabitable is a tragedy always interconnected with conquests.
Beyond his control, but never isolated from man-made misadventures.
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eusebio manuel Sep 13, 2015

U do not agree with the required emmigrants is true that it is very dificult to difine policy of a nation an effort that has to deal with all realities the policy of emigracion and refugee we implement the tragic reality Poeple are victims of laws of war we live in a global society which is not resolved we deal with the consequences at the end
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Magdolna Dr.Csath Sep 13, 2015

Dear Professor Buruma,
Thank you for your wise suggestion. My first comment is: do you know the reason of this mass immigration? It is related to the USA military operations in the Middle East and elsewhere. So I wonder why the USA is not leading the way to accept immigrants? It would be good for the competitiveness of the American economy, too to have young, motivated, and cheap labor, don't you thing so?
My second comment: why should those countries in Central and Eastern Europe which have not been involved in destroying those countries where the majority of immigrants are coming from take any immigrants when they have a serious unemployment problem themselves, especially among young people, and they also need to help the Roma population which is also having problems with finding jobs?
Finally poor countries do not have the resources to support a lot of immigrants when they do not have enough money for education, healthcare and technology investments which would be necessary for developing the economy and creating social development. Maybe somebody would not like to see these poorer, less developed countries to develop?
Sincerely,
Professor M.Csath
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Peter Schaeffer Sep 8, 2015

"It is widely assumed that economic migrants, from inside or outside the EU, are mainly poor people out to live off the tax money of the relatively rich. In fact, most of them are not spongers. They want to work."

I guess the 10s of millions of unemployed and underemployed Europeans "don't want to work". Who knew? In real life it doesn't matter if the illegals flooding Europe want to work or not. The taxes they will pay will never come even close to the costs they impose. In the U.S., even if low-skill immigrants paid 100% of their income in taxes (they actually pay zero income taxes and collect sizable handouts), that wouldn't even cover their health care costs... Of course, illegals (in Europe and America) impose many other large burdens (education, food stamps, housing, prisons, etc.).
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Jose araujo Sep 8, 2015

What about if we start thinking a little bit about the other side of the equation (migrants not refugees).

The worst thing that can happen to a country is migration, to suddenly lose the most dynamic part of its workforce. Its one of the reasons Portugal, Ireland, Greece, etc are in troubles and why migration shouldn't be supported.

Its not about the jobs we steal in other countries, its about the workforce and potential product lost in an already problematic country.

So instead of receiving this migrants, countries like Germany and Sweden should me a serious effort to dislocate production and start investing in this areas.
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Peter Schaeffer Sep 8, 2015

Necessary Migrants...
Not really...
How about imported poverty?
How about imported welfare dependency?
How about imported racism/sexism/violence against women?
How about imported unemployment?
How about imported academic failure?
How about imported crime?

A few years ago, a honest German from the left wrote a book about the integration of immigrants in Germany. See "Germany Does Itself In" by Thilo Sarrazin. Of course, the book was "controversial". The author told the truth (a rare thing in Europe). Like it or not the immigrants coming to Europe are a multi-generational burden. Talking (dissembling) about "necessary migrants" can't change that.
- Peter Schaeffer Sep 27, 2015
  
  HZ,
  
  Alas, you need to try the truth for a change. Thilo Sarrazin was and still is a member of the SDP. Germany's population is growing older. However, Germany can't solve that problem by importing "cradle-to-grave" welfare recipients. Try something called "math". True, "math" is a four-letter word. Try it anyway.
  
  Playing the Hitler card may make you feel smug and superior. However, Thilo Sarrazin wrote a book with "facts". Facts you don't happen to like.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
- Hayri Zink Sep 8, 2015
  
  Sarrazin is all but from the left in his opinions. His theories of eugenic social economics could succeed easily those propagandized in the Third Reich. He was thrown out of the center left party shortly after he wreaked havoc via media, his books and polemic statements.
  In fact, Germany's future perspective seems dark as the population is growing older and older which will cause unbearable costs to state and people in the years to come. And within Germany I see no solution to that, if the current level of prosperity is meant to be hold. The chance lies in an open minded migration policy, to reestablish a balanced age pyramid. Of course, this eventually treats just symptoms of a system built on neoliberal domination of most regions in the southern hemisphere, but that's another story.
  One may argue that the named problems cause lies in Germany being kind of a welfare state, but the trend to aging populations is noticable in almost every "developed" country, varying in strength - but present. It's a problem all the western world will have to face sooner or later.
  There's no single truth, no total answer or course to track, which solves all the problems a nation has. Instead there are many a kind of solutions to every single problem, with effects we mostly can only guess. So it is up to us to meet every single challenge again with wary reason and an open heart.
  
  "Truth is the invention of a liar".
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Roberto Marsicano Sep 8, 2015

Necessary till...?

A research from Forrester (for the USA) says that 22.7 million jobs will be lost by 2025, or 16% of the workforce. And, while automation will create 13.6 million jobs (in software, engineering, design, maintenance, support and training), it believes the net effect will be negative: a loss of 9.1 million jobs in ten years, or 7% of the total.

A net loss of 9.1 million jobs in the next decade.
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Bernhard Kopp Sep 8, 2015

Moodwaves are just that. It is just absurd to assume that Germany could reasonably absorb into its economy and social fabric some 800,000, mostly Arab immigrants this year, and at least another 500,000 every year for the near future. Particularly those who enjoy the 'exceptional mood' the most are the first ones on the political brakes when supply-side structural changes, public and private sector investments for growth and the expansion of the labor market are required. Do-gooders have no problem with contradicting impulses.

Europe has more than 25 million unemployed and another 100 million underemployed and working poor. Britain and Hungary, together with all immigration refuseniks in central and eastern Europe have more than one valid point. Moodwaves are tides, tides turn.
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Binayak Upad Sep 8, 2015

Lets just look at the syrian war at first. Why it happened, and who is responsible for all that has happened. We can turn the deaf ear or blind eye on the reality, and that wouldn't solve the problem. America, which controls most of the political influence in Germany, France and England- who cant say anything against it or do something but just support it. The french and german along with england, supplied the technology to make guns and aeroplanes to kill the people in the middle east along with iraq, afganistan, iran with cooperation from Iseral. Its the real politics that we just have forgotten, the thing Merkel did definately has some influence from other developed nation as well, and i think that has been the plan for ages, its just that it happened now and she did it. Its already been planned.

second the question raises, if the German community would accept it or would just create more unemployment in Europe. Germany after second world has been blamed for all the racial as well as cultural intolerant country; this blames exists till now. For people who wants to get overpaid or just don't want to work it creates situations which is definitely challenging and would make it even more difficult. Some of the extreme right would still use it to fill their pockets. At the end what would affect is the economy and situations like Greece, would return down to Germany.

The other good thing would be, these migrants would take work form their community; and at the end it would be indispensable for people to make their own business and work independently rather then working in a suffocated environment.Which would make the country even more competitive and strong.
The other thing is to separate all differant immigrants along with the international students, workers with the group of refugees. The lack of proper integration and awareness in the society about the refugees and people who are from Middle East and Asia has to be done. If the German society is not educated to this situation early on it would be a challenge in the next process for the next generation. Only learning German wouldnt be a great solution, but to integrate them to the culture and create an enviroment to a society is an important deal.I have a full respect on Merkel who has taken this initative on humanitarien ground.
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Petey Bee Sep 8, 2015

I agree wholeheartedly.

Not just the living refugees, but as many of the corpses as possible should be brought to European and American city centers and paraded around until our leaders learn that there are consequences to their actions.
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j. von Hettlingen Sep 7, 2015

Ian Buruma calls Germany "the new Promised Land for the desperate and downtrodden", and the influx of refugees thronging on Europe's borders the "necessary migrants." His consolation to the Europeans is that the migrants would not pose "a lethal danger to the social fabric of their societies". Many in Europe bear no grudge against the innocent civilians fleeing the bloody war in Syria. They wish them luck in the new country they settle in, hopping they will respect the laws and customs of their host communities.
While Angela Merkel is highly admired for her courage and compassion, and while Germany has enjoyed a broadly sympathetic reputation for offering refugees better asylum conditions than other EU states, except Sweden, she has come under fire from both the left and the right at home. Although she "wants other European countries to take in more refugees under a mandatory quota system", Germany has not had much success persuading its European partners to follow suit. Resistance to the proposal, and to the migrants themselves is widespread, ranging from outright hostile countries like Hungary and other parts of Eastern Europe, to a more polite but equally hardened insistence of countries like Britain and Denmark on the right to “opt out” of such quotas.
Buruma says, "the United Kingdom is a more ethnically mixed, and in some ways more open, society than Germany. London is incomparably more cosmopolitan than Berlin or Frankfurt. And, on the whole, Britain has greatly benefited from immigration". He therefore urges David Cameron to let in more than the 30,000, saying, "British hospitals seriously understaffed" and rely on immigrants to function. Unfortunately many Britons complained about Muslim's attempt to introduce Sharia law in the England and Wales. Acts of terror committed in the name of Islam had also shed a negative light on the reliigion.
It's true that Germany is having low birthrates, while its population is aging, "like many other rich countries’ citizens". No doubt it could "need immigrants with youthful energy and skills to fill jobs that locals, for whatever reason, are unable or unwilling to take". For the moment Germany is an economic powerhouse and can absorb up to 800,000 refugees. What happens if the country enters into recession, like it did before? In the late 1990s and into the early 2000s Germany was called the "sick man of Europe".
Only time can tell how well the Syrians, especially the young men, will adapt themselves. Upon arrival the refugees are told to apply for asylum. Once their application is approved they are free to settle anywhere in the country where they can find a job or a support system. Yet during the initial six months to a year when a decision on their asylum status is pending, the authorities require them to remain in the city where they applied. But there were some, who did not want to wait that long. Nor were they prepared to go just anywhere they were sent. They left the temporary camp and made their own way to somewhere else, to be together with friends and families. As we all know, the Germans love law and order and expect others to do the same.
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M M Sep 7, 2015

The Junker / Merkel plan is sheer madness…If one empties these war torn countries like Syria, Iraq and Somalia, the West is just giving up ground to extremism in those countries, ISIS / Al-Qaida, etc. will only flourish and become stronger and will export more aggressively their ideologies to the West and other countries. Extremism must be defeated at all costs, and these people should be offered only temporary shelter and repatriated at the earliest opportunity to live peacefully and to prosper in their own environment and to ultimately learn to defend / protect themselves and their countries from extremism and the evil forces.
- Petey Bee Sep 8, 2015
  
  M M,
  Problem is, the "extremism in their home countries" didn't just happen like a natural disaster. It happened because the existing society and governments there were deliberately destroyed.
  
  While the previous governments in Syria Iraq Libya etc were hardly model democracies of the kind we aspire to, they also were not extremist zones of chaos as they are now.
  
  We have only ourselves to thank for that.
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LAXMIDHAR N BHOLA Sep 7, 2015

Germany's acceptance has its own importance in terms of labor and human empathy. This is a 'empathy led-economic compulsion that enabled Germany to take such steps.How much success to be achieved or how the migrants integrate into the New Climate 'is yet to be gauged'- when human endeavor /DareQuotient take the right direction, new economic creation takes place. ultimately, migrants work better in a 'foreign land'!
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Michael Public Sep 7, 2015

We live in the age of cosmopolitanism. Trying to return the age of the dominant nation state is pointless - all that remains is to decide how to best move forward that we can be more 'alike' and less 'pockets of minorities'. When I worked in a America I met an girl who was 2nd generation refugee from Iran - and she was more American than apple pie. Not to mention she was highly educated and wealthy (as a result of the businesses her father operated in America.) Compare this to other people in America who as minorities have not integrated, they live in 'ghettos', engage in crime and are objectively nothing but a drain on resources of the country. The question we need to be answering is not whether migration is good or bad - because both types exist in equal quantities - it is rather how we go about it that it results in the former type of outcome and not in the latter type of outcome.
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