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Economics

اللحظة الحاسمة الجديدة في أوروبا

Apr 10, 2020 Xavier Vives

برشلونة - يقترب الاتحاد الأوروبي ومنطقة اليورو من اللحظة الحاسمة الثانية خلال عقد من الزمان. تتمثل اللحظة الحاسمة الأولى في أزمة الديون التي بدأت في عام 2010، وتم تجاوزها من خلال إعلان رئيس البنك المركزي الأوروبي ماريو دراجي في يوليو/ تموز 2012 عن استعداد البنك المركزي الأوروبي للقيام "بكل ما يلزم" للحفاظ على اليورو. دعم البنك المركزي الأوروبي إعلان السيد دراجي من خلال تقديم نظام المعاملات النقدية الصريحة (OMT)، وهو برنامج طارئ لشراء السندات السيادية، ولكن لحسن الحظ لم تكن هناك حاجة لاستخدامه قط.

بعد ذلك، أنشأ الاتحاد الأوروبي اتحادًا مصرفيًا، مع تولي البنك المركزي الأوروبي دور المشرف على القطاع المصرفي وآلية حل مشتركة للتعامل مع المؤسسات التي تعاني من الإفلاس. لكن هذا الاتحاد لا يزال غير مكتمل، لأن حلوله الوقائية ليست كافية لمواجهة أزمة كبرى، كما يفتقر أيضا إلى نظام مشترك للتأمين على الودائع.

بشكل أعم، باعتباره اتحادًا نقديًا يفتقر إلى اتحاد مالي لتقاسم المخاطر، أضحت منطقة اليورو منطقة غير مستقرة. في الواقع، تُمثل أزمة وباء كوفيد 19 تحديا هائلا يتطلب نفقات ضخمة - ليس فقط على الرعاية الصحية، ولكن أيضًا لحماية الاقتصاد الأوروبي من الانهيار بينما يتم تنفيذ إجراءات الإغلاق والتباعد الاجتماعي.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Henk Crop Apr 14, 2020

Matthew. It is not only interesting. It is telling. In Legrain's article about the Marshall Plan, on this page, you will find a similar discussion. It is the Europhile Elite dreaming about their illusion. Drunk by their power and status. Stumbling from one failure to another. In the process they waste the wealth of the EU citizen on a grand scale. The EU citizen they look upon with disdain and they do not listen to. Lack of transparancy and sometimes deceit characterize their communication with the citizen.
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Matthew McCarthy Apr 14, 2020

Interesting that none of the comments support the gist of the article, which is basically repeating the mantra "More Europe!"
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Henk Crop Apr 13, 2020

Neutral experts agree that the Euro cannot survive (Stiglitz, Mody). It will not only require sizable money transfers from Germany and the Netherlands etc. to the South.
It will also require that the Southern countries increase their competitiveness. Adjust their culture: work more, retire later, less centralization, less bureaucracy, reduce pensions, do not spent more than they can afford. Tax integration will not be enough.
By the introduction of the Euro ( plus some other mistakes ) the Europhiles ( pushed by Mitterand) have put Europe on a kamikaze flight.
The solution is obvious. Just go back to the EEC, the successful common market we had 20 years ago.
But the Europhiles, led by France and friends, refuse to see or even discuss that. Anyone questioning the issue is listed as an enemy of the EU, lacking solidarity and even morals. They seek solutions by building ever more debt and ever more complex monetairy devices.
The Germans, who have the biggest economy and also have a successful track record, do not provide the leadership needed, because of their history.
The longer they proceed on this deadly, and unnecessary, flight the bigger will be the bang.
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Peter Schaeffer Apr 13, 2020

SE, All too true. Why should the north pay the south's bill forever? However, the flip side is that Euro locks the south into an economic system that is doomed to fail (for the south). The bottom line is that either Germany must accept a permanent transfer union (and a very big one) or Germany must accept the demise of the Euro and the end of "Europe".
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Prashant Kotak Apr 11, 2020

Perhaps in bad taste, but us Brexiteers will shamelessly pick the most inappropriate moment to take a pop at the EU, so here goes.

The EU's dire response to date to the pandemic is shining a ruthless searchlight on its defining characteristics: it's slowness to react to rapid change, it's propensity to continually bicker (eg the Eurobonds bunfight, while Rome - or in this case, Lombardy - burns) and it's simultaneously displayed weakness (eg can't deal with Orban) and longing for ever more centrally hoarded power, which is then invariably misdirected into a pointless love of rigid, ossifying process - technocracy for the sake of it. The Euro in particular, is shown up as not fit for purpose (eg the UK will monetise debt via the direct path between The BoE and The Treasury, but Italy cannot, even if it's government wanted to).

And if the EU as an organisaton is not capable of dealing collectively with precisely this type of force majeure crisis, then the question arises:
Just what is the point of the EU's existence?
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stephan Edwards Apr 10, 2020

Won't make me popular but I will say that the day Merkel agrees to mutualizing debt is her last day in office. There is no appetite whatsoever in the North to foot the bills for the south. And who can blame them, The south has had a decade to get it's fiscal house in order and couldn't be bothered too. Does anyone believe that the Leopards will change their spots? Or will they expect the North to pay forever? Coronabond are just the camel's nose. Once mutualization is done it will be irreversible. And the north is not interested in paying for the south for all of eternity. Which is what the south has in mind.
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اللحظة الحاسمة الجديدة في أوروبا

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