Politics

Көші-қон мәселесін басынан шешу

Sep 12, 2017 Kemal Derviş

ВАШИНГТОН, ДС – Кедей елдердің азаматтары үшін жиі көші-қон тартымды шешім болып табылады. Жаңа елге саяхат жиі қауіпті болғанымен, ол әлдеқайда көбірек экономикалық мүмкіндік береді: дамыған елдерде орташа жан басына шаққандағы табыс дамушы елдерге қарағанда 50 есе көп (сатып алу қабілетінің паритеті бойынша). Көптеген жағдайларда мигранттардың физикалық қауіпсіздігі де жақсарады. Дегенмен, мигранттарды қабылдайтын елдер үшін көші-қон дау-жанжалды тақырып болып қала бермек, сондықтан үкіметтер өз жетістіктерін жинап және шамадан тыс шығыстарды болдырмауға мүмкіндік беретін саясатты реттеуге тырысады.

Иммиграция әсіресе Еуропадағы және Америка Құрама Штаттарындағы саяси пікірталастардың маңызды тақырыбы болып табылады. Тіпті мигранттарға өз шекараларын жапқан Жапонияда да, халықтың тез қартаюымен күресудің жолдарын табу қажеттілігі соңғы кездері осы мәселені талқылауға апарды.

Осы елдердің бәрінде пікірталас үш негізгі ұстанымға тіріледі. Біріншісін тек кішігірім азшылық ғана қолдап, онда елеулі саяси қолдауы жоқ - ол иммиграцияның дамыған ел үшін өте пайдалы екендігіне негізделген, себебі жаңадан келгендер демографиялық проблемаларды шешуге және экономикаға қажет дағдыларды қамтамасыз етуге көмектеседі деп есептеледі.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

j. von Hettlingen Sep 13, 2017

Kemal Derviş believes in "tackling migration at the source." In Europe's case, Africa is its prime concern, from where the main source of migrants hails. No doubt it is essential to help boost growth, hoping that - "over time" - a robust economy across the continent could "greatly reduce the pressure that Europe faces." He points out that "Africa’s long-term development will of course require greater political stability and peace." The challenge is the size of the continent - over 50 countries with different levels of education and degrees of development.
However the author doesn't mention that Africa has the world's fastest population growth rate, and the highest youth population. In sub-Saharan Africa, women with no education have an average of 6.7 births - Niger 7.17 births per woman. Elsewhere women with primary education have an average of 5.9 births, and women with secondary education have an average of 3.9 births.
While "there are steps that Europe can take to help spur growth," Africa leaders need to grasp the scale of the demographic challenge they face. It is crucial that governments factor the youth bulge into national and social development planning, to fight high youth unemployment. However, across the continent it is not always the numbers of young people that have created unemployment, but structural issues in each individual country.
Although "Africa has plenty of natural resources," they are unequally distributed and have been a cause of conflicts. Many resource-rich countries lack "the capital and knowhow needed to support a significant growth acceleration." Due to bad management, "public resources are simply inadequate to supply the bulk of that capital." Poor infrastructure needs to be improved and "investment must come from the private sector, as must critical skills and access to more developed markets."
In order to attract "private investment" there must be law and order to give foreign investors or philantropists a sense of confidence that their activities are protected. Although there is a role that "public investment and philanthropy" could play in financing or subsidising "inherently unprofitable projects," it is equally important to have patience and take risks. "The goal should be to identify projects despite being economically profitable, are unattractive to private investors, owing to institutional and other barriers, and then work to remove those obstacles."
Bad governance and rampant corruption hold back many foreigners, who want to do business or help develop in Africa. In many cases, "investors demand a risk premium on virtually any project, even those with potentially high rates of return." The author suggests, the "public sector can help with risk-pooling measures such as carrying certain tranches of risk or providing insurance." But it requires "institution-building across all sectors (not just health and education) and an long-term engagement in a volatile or insecure region.
The author says "the positive impact of this approach would be far-reaching – beginning with a reduction in migration pressure. The impact would be even greater if new investment targeted areas with the largest number of displaced persons and migrants-in-waiting." If resource-rich countries like Nigeria and South Africa have double-digit youth unemployment rate, how can other impoverished countries, like Niger, coupe with their youth bulge?
Indeed, "investment-driven growth is no substitute for conflict resolution and political stabilization; on the contrary, the former cannot be sustained without progress on the latter. But an economic boost could serve as an important source of much-needed hope – and the start of a virtuous circle of peace and prosperity." Nevertheless, population growth is still an issue that can't be swept under the carpet.
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Henk Crop Sep 12, 2017

A better approach to "tackling immigration at the source" is addressing the extreme birthrates in some parts of the world.
In Africa birthrates range from 4,7 to 7,7 child per woman.
For a stable population you need only 2,1 child per woman.
This places not only a heavy burden on the families but also on their economies.
Even if they would be able to feed and educate their children there is no employment.
As economic development often does not keep up with the rapid growth of the population.
In Africa live now 200 million young people (age between 20 - 25) a number which is growing explosively ( UN Population Facts, May 2015 ).
For many their will be little prospect, which could lead to social unrest and emigration.
A recent UN poll found that 400 million Africans would like to emigrate to Europe.
Further high population growth takes place in the Middle East and other countries.
With such numbers emigration to Europe cannot be a solution. The EU has already too much unemployment. It will be the end of Europe as a viable and stable society.
Also these investment programs are probably not going to adequately help Africa.
The birthrates which are too high and should be reduced by Familyplanning programs.
Especially the application of condoms. They are cheap and easy to distribute.
That may be sensitive in some societies, but that is a challenge for aid organisation and also religious leaders, Christians and Moslims.
It is the most effective and humane way to address migration and other problems.
Remember, China could only achieve its miracoulus development after it reduced its birthrate.
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Steve Hurst Sep 12, 2017

Firstly - It is not the job of the public sector to underwrite private sector risk in other countries. Secondly - the figures are a nonsense. Africa requires 75% of African GDP investment in infrastructure to 'develop' and that cannot be enabled by limited public sector underwriting of private risk from outside Africa (Africa GDP US$3.3 trillion (2017) whilst debt is relatively small at US$200 billion, indicating that credit risk is the issue which will not be ameliorated by external private risk underwriting, the risk will still be present will it not. African infrastructure requires a nearly US$2.5trillion investment). Thirdly - whilst skilled worker inflow helps a country low skilled workers simply reduce per capita income. Skilled workers should be encouraged to remain in their home country(s) (ref Poland and Romania population outflows for example). Fourthly - the humanitarian objective should be to aid population control so Africa does not double its population within 30 years which will likely be a disaster unless resource management matches this growth. Which would lead to truly monumental migrant flows North
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