Chalice grapes European chair akahawkeyefan/Flickr

O cálice envenenado do crescimento na Europa

CAMBRIDGE – Após uma dupla recessão e um longo período de estagnação, a zona euro está finalmente a mostrar sinais de recuperação. A confiança dos consumidores está a aumentar. As vendas a retalho e o registo de automóveis novos estão em alta. A Comissão Europeia prevê um crescimento de 1,3% para o corrente ano, o que não é mau à luz dos padrões europeus, podendo, no entanto, ser muito mau no que diz respeito à reforma da Europa.

Não é difícil perceber a razão da intensificação do crescimento. Naturalmente, porque o Banco Central Europeu anunciou, no final de Janeiro, um ambicioso programa de aquisição de activos (flexibilização quantitativa). Tal perspectiva conduziu rapidamente a uma descida da taxa de câmbio do euro, aumentando a competitividade internacional dos produtos europeus.

Contudo, a desvalorização do euro é ainda demasiado recente para que a diferença possa já ser sentida. Os antecedentes históricos, sem esquecer a experiência do Japão com a queda do iene, sugerem que são necessários vários trimestres, ou mesmo anos, para que o impacto positivo da depreciação da moeda sobre as exportações líquidas se faça sentir.

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