Chalice grapes European chair akahawkeyefan/Flickr

饮鸠止渴的欧洲复苏

发自剑桥——在经历了一场双底型衰退以及比预想中更长的停滞之后,欧元终于看见了复苏的曙光。消费者信心正在回升,零售额和新车注册量也掉头向上。欧盟委员会今年会有1.3%的增长,这在欧洲标准看来不坏,但对欧洲改革来说,这是一个非常糟糕的消息。

我们其实不难发现这种增长是如何实现的。其中最明显的是,欧洲央行在一月底宣布实施了一项极为激进的资产购买计划——也就是量化宽松。这一手段所产生的预期当即压低了欧元汇率,令欧洲产品的国际竞争力有所提升。

但讨论欧元贬值所产生的巨大影响还为时过早。历史证据——更别提当年日元贬值的经验教训——表明在人们感知到货币贬值的积极影响之前往往要经历数个季度,甚至数年。

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