Politics

欧洲的三条断层线

Nov 30, 2015 Jean Pisani-Ferry

巴黎—十年或二十年前，欧盟所面临的生存问题是，在一个全球化的世界里，它是否仍有意义。如今，这个问题是，对于重大外部冲击，欧盟是否能够有效应对。

欧洲周边地区既贫穷又危险。从直布罗陀往南，人均收入要下降五倍多。乌克兰已被战争席卷。以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突持续了50多年。而伊拉克战争还未结束，叙利亚骚乱便已兴起。

二战结束后的几十年里，欧洲能够忽视其边界外的发展趋势：安全归美国管。但形势已有所不同。美国从伊拉克撤军表明了它的参与限度，而欧盟近邻——不仅包括叙利亚，也包括东部和南部周边地区——的问题已经影响到欧盟自身。因此，看起来欧盟最重要的重点应该是保护自身和帮助稳定其环境。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 9 Comments on this article

M M Dec 4, 2015

The EU has outlived its purpose…it is on a life support machine and has been for a while.
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Steve Hurst Dec 4, 2015

So essentially the underlying proposal is more centralisation, totally ignoring the fact that voters who ultimately determine direction do not want it. How is that going to work
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DF Lickiss Dec 3, 2015

https://ofohblog.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/is-europe-stumbling-towards-a-federated-super-state/

My take on this article - for what it is worth.
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John Jones Dec 2, 2015

A century ago Europe was embroiled in the Great War, arguably the worst in history, precursor of the second world war which introduced us to weapons of mass destruction, not conjectured but all too horribly actual. We still seem to have learned very little from all this, imagining that it can now be "business as usual" except that we now have a largely impotent UN trying to knock some sense into our heads, with very little response. When, oh when are we going to accept that it is sheer lunacy to expect a planet to run itself without any coherent overarching authority. National or power-bloc armies manipulated by politicians who often do not even represent the majority of their own citizens and who may change their colour at every election are never going to be able to run the planet safely. We may get better at discerning the fault lines, but what about the earthquakes?
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 2, 2015

Jean Pisani-Ferry says in the past "10 or 20 years" the European Union has been grappling with an "existential question". Then it was about whether the Union "still had a purpose in a globalized world." Today it is "whether the EU can respond effectively to major external shocks," which have their origins in our "poor and dangerous" neighbourhood - high unemployment in Africa; a frozen conflict in Ukraine; no peace in Palestine; fightings in Iraq and Syria.
He points out "three fault lines" that pose a threat to the unity and stability of Europe, suggesting it's time for the EU "to protect itself and help stabilize its environment." For decades Europe had relied on the US to provide for security. Now it's time for the EU to get its act together. Yet it's doubtful that each of the "three fault lines" risks to unravel the European experiement - the "Brexit; the east/west divide; dissent in France and Germany over priorities.
No doubt Britain's referendum by the end of 2017 on whether or not to remain a member of the European Union "will be a close call." David Cameron is demanding reforms within the Union and has outlined his four goals for renegotiating Britain's EU-membership:
- Protection of the single market for Britain and other non-euro countries
- Boosting competitiveness by setting a target for the reduction of the "burden" of red tape
- Exempting Britain from "ever-closer union" and bolstering national parliaments
- Restricting EU migrants' access to in-work benefits such as tax credits
Fuelled by anti-immigrant sentiment Britain's biggest concern is the "internal migration." David Cameron hopes to seek restrictions on benefits for migrants coming to Britain. The author says the risk that this "four-decade-old partnership" may end if Britons opt for a Brexit, as a way to protect itself from the "tumult on the continent." Indeed, their "in-vote" will depend on the development in Europe in the coming months.
The refugee crisis has laid bare the east/west divide, or a clash of civilisations - multicultural diversity versus national homogeneity. The unwillingness among Eastern Europeans to share the burden with Germany and Sweden is disappointing. They were eager to benefit from their EU-memberships, without imbibing moral values and humanitarian views that we embrace. This is a paradox! On the one hand many of them want to keep Russia at arm's length after decades of subservience. On the other hand some "denounce Europe's flaws."
The third "fault line" may be the least challenging, because France and Germany enjoy a strong bond in their relationship. Both countries are founders of institutions, which were later absorbed into today's EU. The dissent over priorities will not disrupt their cooperation. It's true that France wants to step up its air campaign against ISIS since the November 13 attacks in Paris, while Germany is more concerned about resettling the refugees, who have arrived en masse.
Angela Merkel and François Hollande "have expressed a commitment to mutual support." Now Germany plans to deploy Tornado reconnaissance jets to help the French effort in Syria - not sending "some troops to Mali" as the author suggests.
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hari naidu Dec 1, 2015

The actual fault lines are internal. It finally reflects upon EMU - which I suppose is simply a jaundice concept without political will to implement it. In other words, as long as fiscal union of EU is relegated to national veto, it's rather stupid & childish to talk any more about EMU as a foundation principle of EU.
When (and if) eastern bloc reinforces national boundaries, as sovereigns, Schengen will inevitably come to an end.

What then>? The refuges crisis is simply a reflection of political impotence and more....
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Wes Tony Nov 30, 2015

you talk about the "very principles of the EU’s treaties and Charter of Fundamental Rights." but forget to say the most important thing: those EU treaty rights were made to apply ONLY TO THE EU CITIZENS not to people from other parts of the world.

the way you put this would be like if a mexican would manage to jump over the USA wall with Mexico, they would automatically get USA citizenship because they are now in USA...which is absurd of course ! The same way a syrian who jumps a fence into the EU should not be given the EU rights.

Merkel took 1 million people to Germany wihtout asking anyone if they agreed, then she ordered everyone to share them like someone who makes a mistake and gets a disease then asks others to share it. are you people for real? we are ready to break the EU over this so do not play with fire GERMANY !!!
- Steve Hurst Dec 5, 2015
  
  To Thomas Blunt
  
  Merkel suspended the Dublin agreement without discusion with other states in the Schengen area
  
  Merkel created a surge in migrant numbers. Migrants report this themselves
  
  Merkel having said migrants are welcome then immediately tried to share them out
  
  External border control has failed with the Schengen area. With that failure comes the problem of criminals and jihadists walking in, as has already been documented
  
  50% of migrants are economic and will have to be ejected. 1/3 of those claiming to be Syrian are not according to Germany
  
  85% of migrants remain long term unemployed in Sweden, figures are similar for Australia
  
  Merkels open invite has been proven wrong as shown by steps now being taken by Germany and comment by German officials
  
  Re overseas - The West is damned if it does and damned if it doesnt hence Obamas resolve to minimise involvement
  
  Half of the migrants come from Africa. I would seem most of Africa would like to relocate to the EU. Furthermore this problem is not going away. Africas population is in growth and climate change will only make this worse
  
  In response to these problems of migrant flows and porous borders Germany has led on discussion with Turkey a country with a 98% muslim population out of 76million, civil strife between ethic groups, porous borders and fairly open traffic between Turkey and Syria. These discussions are clearly intended to ease Turkeys entry into the EU as a bribe for sitting on the migrant problem. In short nothing is solved and may well be proven worse in time
  
  Germany showed its colours with the treatment of Greece EZ problems. Fair enough, any state should look after its citizens first. That however is not compatable with leading a 28 state federal objective
  
  I think it is quite reasonable anybody asks where this is all going
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- Thomas Blunt Dec 2, 2015
  
  Sorry, but what is absurd are quite a few aspects of your comment. 1. Non of the refugees gets automatic German citizenship. So what exactly are you trying to say with your companions with the US?
  2. Merkel did not "order" anyone to take refugees - in fact to failed trying to convince most other nations. Also, she acted in line with the German constitution. She did not break any EU law that I know of, either. And lastly, Germany is not the most generous country towards refugees. There ate other countries like Sweden who, per capita, tok in a lot more.
  4. And last: You seem to be British, based on what you wrote. Did you ever think about the fact that it was an Amercing-British invasion of Iraq that stared the whole disaster - and that other nations like Germany, that opposed this war, that are now paying the price in terms of having to cope with refugees?
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