50 euro banknote Daniel Roland/Stringer

Europa oder Anti-Europa?

MAILAND – Ein gut unterrichteter Freund in Mailand stellte mir kürzlich folgende Frage: „Wenn ein ausländischer Investor etwa aus den USA eine beträchtliche Summe in die italienische Volkswirtschaft investieren wollte, was würdest du ihm dann raten?“ Meine Antwort war, dass es zwar viele Möglichkeiten gäbe, in Unternehmen und Branchen zu investieren, aber dass das allgemeine Investitionsumfeld kompliziert sei. Ich würde empfehlen, gemeinsam mit einem kenntnisreichen inländischen Partner zu investieren, der sich im System auskennt und teilweise versteckte Risiken erkennen kann.

Natürlich gilt dasselbe auch für viele andere Länder wie etwa China, Indien und Brasilien. Doch die Eurozone ist zunehmend dabei, sich in einen Wirtschaftsblock der zwei Geschwindigkeiten zu verwandeln, und die potenziellen politischen Folgen dieses Trends verstärken die Sorgen der Anleger.

Bei einer Tagung hochrangiger Anlageberater fragte kürzlich einer der Organisatoren alle Teilnehmer, ob sie glaubten, dass der Euro in fünf Jahren noch existieren würde. Nur einer von 200 dachte, dass er das nicht tun würde – angesichts der gegenwärtigen Wirtschaftslage in Europa eine relativ überraschende kollektive Einschätzung der aktuellen Risikoentwicklung.

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