Millennium Bridge in London

La cuestión para Europa en 2016

NUEVA YORK – A las puertas de un nuevo año, enfrentamos un mundo donde se multiplican los riesgos geopolíticos y geoeconómicos. La mayor parte de Medio Oriente está en llamas, lo que hace a algunos pensar que puede comenzar en cualquier momento una larga guerra entre sunnitas y shiítas (como la Guerra de los Treinta Años en Europa, entre católicos y protestantes). El ascenso de China impulsa una amplia variedad de disputas territoriales en Asia y cuestiona el liderazgo estratégico estadounidense en la región. Y aunque la invasión rusa a Ucrania parezca haberse convertido en un conflicto semilatente, podría reactivarse en cualquier momento.

También hay riesgo de más epidemias, como en años recientes nos han enseñado los brotes de SARS, MERS, ébola y otras enfermedades infecciosas. Existe además la amenaza latente de la ciberguerra, mientras actores y grupos no estatales crean conflicto y caos desde Medio Oriente hasta África septentrional y subsahariana. Y no debemos olvidar el importante daño causado por el cambio climático, con un aumento de frecuencia y poder letal de los fenómenos meteorológicos extremos.

Aun así, puede que el eje geopolítico del mundo en 2016 pase por Europa. Para empezar, la salida de Grecia de la eurozona quizá esté postergada, pero no descartada, en la medida en que los cambios al sistema de pensiones y otras reformas estructurales puedan provocar un conflicto entre el país y sus acreedores europeos. La salida de Grecia tal vez fuera el inicio del fin de la unión monetaria, ya que los inversores empezarían a preguntarse cuál será el próximo estado miembro que abandone la unión (incluso podría ser uno de los países del núcleo, como Finlandia).

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