Millennium Bridge in London

Regard sur la question européenne

NEW YORK –  En ce début d'année, le monde est confronté à la multiplication des risques géopolitiques et géoéconomiques. La plus grande partie du Moyen-Orient est à feu et à sang, ce qui laisse entrevoir le risque d'une guerre de longue durée entre sunnites et chiites (à l'image de la Guerre de Trente Ans entre catholiques et protestants en Europe). La montée en puissance de la Chine s'accompagne de nombreuses revendications territoriales en Asie, elle constitue un défi pour le leadership stratégique des USA dans la région. Quant à l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, le conflit est semble-t-il partiellement gelé, mais il peut redémarrer à tout moment.

Il faut aussi compter avec le risque d'apparition d'une nouvelle épidémie, comme celle due au SRAS, au coronavirus du SRMO (syndrome respiratoire du Moyen-Orient), au virus d'Ebola ou à d'autres maladies infectieuses. La cyberguerre menace elle aussi, tandis que du Moyen-Orient à l'Afrique sub-saharienne et à l'Afrique du Nord, des acteurs et des groupes non étatiques provoquent des conflits et provoquent le chaos. Autre menace capitale, le réchauffement de la planète a déjà fait des dégâts considérables, avec des événements climatiques extrêmes de plus en plus fréquents et meurtriers.

Pourtant c'est l'Europe qui pourrait devenir cette année le lieu de tous les dangers géopolitiques. En premier lieu, la sortie de la Grèce hors de la zone euro a peut-être été seulement retardée, car la réforme des retraites et d'autres réformes structurelles mettent le pays sur la voie d'un choc frontal avec ses créanciers. Or un "Grexit" pourrait annoncer le début de la fin de l'union monétaire, car les investisseurs se demanderaient alors quel pays va suivre (sans même exclure un pays qui joue un rôle central dans l'UE comme la Finlande).

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