Millennium Bridge in London

2016的欧洲难题

发自纽约——新年伊始,我们却面对着一个地缘政治和地缘经济风险都成倍增加的世界。中东大多数地区战火纷飞,让人不禁怀疑逊尼派和什叶派之间的长期战争(正如欧洲天主教徒和新教徒之间的三十年战争)可能就在眼前。中国的崛起正催生大范围的亚洲领土争端,并挑战美国在该地区的战略领导地位。而俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵显然已经进入半冻结状态,并可能在任何时候重燃。

此外还可能爆发其他流行病,正如近几年非典,中东呼吸综合症,埃博拉病毒和其他传染病所展现的那样。网络战也是一个迫在眉睫的威胁,同时非特定国籍的破坏分子和团体正在中东及撒哈拉南北的非洲地区制造冲突和混乱。最后(但显然并非最不重要的)气候变化已经造成了明显的破坏,极端天气事件已经变得越来越频繁和致命。

然而欧洲可能会在2016年变成地缘政治的爆点。首先希腊退出欧元区的进程可能只是被推迟,而非阻止,因为养老金和其他结构性改革使得该国与其欧洲债权人爆发了极大冲突。 对此“希退”可能是货币联盟走向尽头的开端,因为投资者会怀疑其他成员——甚至可能是核心国家(如芬兰)——是否会是下一个退出者。

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