Urban street in Europe

克服欧洲的双重增长挑战

发自慕尼黑——随着经济复苏终于开始在欧洲占据上风,决策者的当务之急是确保增长可以持续到久远的将来。财政和货币刺激政策在危机高峰期可能是恰当之举,但却无助于应对欧洲大陆的长期发展前景的最大威胁:祸不单行的弱势人口结构和低投资额。

根据经合组织欧盟委员会的计算,即使能实现移民的稳定流入,28个欧盟国家的总劳动人口仍会在未来15年中减少1200~1600万。新输入人口数量的更快速上升可以帮助改善这种情况;但更多的移民在根本上也不是对欧盟经济长期问题的适当解决方案。

实现欧洲可持续增长的唯一希望是推动生产力,并以此在不断萎缩的劳动力中获得更多的价值。但问题是欧洲大陆距离上一次生产率的显著提高已经很多年了。在西欧,劳动生产率(每工作小时的产出)的增长已经停滞了几十年。在1960年代,劳动生产率实现了强劲的年均4%增长,然后放缓至1980年代的2%并在世纪之交之际跌破1%。如今则以0.5%的速度匍匐前进。与此同时,包含技术创新在内的全要素生产率则一直停滞不前。

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