Urban street in Europe

克服欧洲的双重增长挑战

发自慕尼黑——随着经济复苏终于开始在欧洲占据上风,决策者的当务之急是确保增长可以持续到久远的将来。财政和货币刺激政策在危机高峰期可能是恰当之举,但却无助于应对欧洲大陆的长期发展前景的最大威胁:祸不单行的弱势人口结构和低投资额。

根据经合组织欧盟委员会的计算,即使能实现移民的稳定流入,28个欧盟国家的总劳动人口仍会在未来15年中减少1200~1600万。新输入人口数量的更快速上升可以帮助改善这种情况;但更多的移民在根本上也不是对欧盟经济长期问题的适当解决方案。

实现欧洲可持续增长的唯一希望是推动生产力,并以此在不断萎缩的劳动力中获得更多的价值。但问题是欧洲大陆距离上一次生产率的显著提高已经很多年了。在西欧,劳动生产率(每工作小时的产出)的增长已经停滞了几十年。在1960年代,劳动生产率实现了强劲的年均4%增长,然后放缓至1980年代的2%并在世纪之交之际跌破1%。如今则以0.5%的速度匍匐前进。与此同时,包含技术创新在内的全要素生产率则一直停滞不前。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/MPrgsGz/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now