Proč je deflace dobrou zprávou pro Evropu

BRUSEL – V dnešní globální ekonomice není žádná cena důležitější než ta za surovou ropu. Denně se ropy vyprodukuje (a spotřebuje) přes 80 milionů barelů a velká část tohoto výstupu se mezinárodně obchoduje. Prudký propad ceny ropy – z loňských zhruba 110 dolarů na dnešních asi 60 dolarů – tak dovozcům ropy přihrává úspory ve stamiliardách dolarů. Evropské unii a Spojeným státům by přínos z tohoto poklesu mohl vynést ekvivalent asi 2-3 % HDP.

Přínosy laciné ropy pro Evropu mohou časem ještě růst, protože dlouhodobé kontrakty na dodávky plynu jsou do značné míry indexované k ceně ropy. To představuje další zvýhodnění Evropy, kde byly ceny zemního plynu až donedávna několikrát vyšší než v USA, jimž prospívala levná břidlicová energie.

Řada pozorovatelů ale tvrdí, že laciná ropa má i nevýhodu, protože ve vyspělých zemích, které už teď podle všeho vězí hluboko v pasti nízkého růstu, ještě zhoršuje deflační tendence. Vinou strmého pádu ceny ropy bude podle tohoto názoru pro centrální banky těchto zemí těžší dosáhnout 2% roční míry inflace, již si většina zvolila za cíl při naplňování svého mandátu v oblasti stability cen.

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