为何通缩对欧洲来说是好事?

发自布鲁塞尔——在当今的全球经济中,没有什么价格要比原油价格更重要。每天有超过8000万桶原油被生产和消费掉,而且其中很大一部分都进入了国际贸易环节。因此,油价的大幅下跌——从去年的110美元到近日的60美元/桶——为石油进口国节省了数千亿美元的资金。对于欧盟和美国来说,从油价下跌中所取得收益相当于各自GDP的2~3%。

在欧洲方面,低油价的好处或会随着时间推移不断增加,因为长期天然气供应合同在很大程度上与油价挂钩。同时这也意味着另一优势,欧洲当前的天然气价目前来说还是数倍于美国,因为后者受惠于低价的页岩油。

但许多观察家也指出低油价也有其不利之处,因为这会令发达国家的通缩趋势进一步恶化,令到本以似乎陷入低增长陷阱的状况雪上加霜。根据这一观点,油价的迅速下跌会令那些国家的央行更难实现为维持价格稳定任务而设立的每年2%通胀目标

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