leonard45_Michael Kappelerpicture alliance via Getty Images_g7 summit

Will the Iran Conflict Break the West?

Aug 29, 2019 Mark Leonard

After months of both the United States and Iran taking a harder line against each other, Europe finds itself stuck between a rock and a hard place. If Iran pursues further brinkmanship in response to US provocation, European Union member states may decide they have no choice but to embrace the Trump administration's containment strategy.

BERLIN – Before the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, this month, it was a toss-up whether the greater disruption would come from US President Donald Trump or British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Yet the attendee who had the biggest impact was someone who was not expected to be there at all: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

Although media coverage of the summit focused on trade wars, fires in the Amazon, and the looming danger of a “no-deal” Brexit, the discussions about Iran were probably the most consequential. The fate of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal could determine not only whether the world’s most combustible region descends into a nuclear-arms race, but also whether the Western political alliance can survive.

In Biarritz, French President Emmanuel Macron opened the way for a US-Iranian détente. And in recent days, the main players in the Iran drama have all pulled back from the brink. The United Kingdom has released the Iranian tanker (Grace 1) that it seized in Gibraltar. And, more important, Trump has expressed a willingness to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, even suggesting that he would not object to Iran receiving a “short-term line of credit or loan.”

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Akbar Montaser Sep 2, 2019

This is a typical neo-con inspired article that I have read for long. Here is why:

"If the United States embarks on any adventurous policy on Iran, as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US will only realize that Iraq and Afghanistan represented garden parties compared to any war on Iran."

http://www.payvand.com/news/11/oct/1174.html

Iran is a nation of 83 million. At no time in its civilization, Iranians have been so united with their system of government. They realize West intends to break Iran apart only to steal its national resources. The US governments sanctions against Iran is a blessing hidden from intellectually bankrupt minds. The reason is patent: Read history before writing an article.
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Wim Roffel Sep 1, 2019

This article smells like Israeli propaganda:
- If Iraq 2003 has learned us anything it is that there should be a clear break in the West in this kind of situations. Grovelling for the US - as the EU is doing now with the cowardly constructed Instex - is an open invitation to the US that a bit more pressure might be enough to break our determination.
- not Iran but Israel is the main terrorist force in the Middle East. Unlike any other country (except for the Yemen conflict) it is regularly killing people outside its borders.
- Iranian pressure is the only thing that has kept the EU from totally surrendering to US pressure.
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Henk Crop Aug 30, 2019

What deal they want to save ? The temporary postponement of building a nuclear bomb ?
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Mirek Fatyga Aug 30, 2019

what West?
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j. von Hettlingen Aug 29, 2019

Mark Leonard says European leaders are divided over Iran that they might eventually be forced to choose sides. The Trump administration’s hard stance on Iran rattles European allies, who find themselves “stuck between a rock and a hard place.” Their efforts to salvage the 2015 nuclear deal Iran signed with Britain, France and Germany, together with China and Russia has put them on a collision course with an uncompromising Trump, who withdrew from the agreement in 2018, calling it the “worst deal ever.”
The clash represents a huge test of the durability of a concerted alliance that Britain, France and Germany have managed to maintain in their humiliatingly fruitless bid to prevent Iran and the US from stoking further tensions, that could spiral out of control. The risk is that their unity over the need to preserve the deal may falter when disagreements surface on how far they are prepared to antagonise a belligerent Trump, who surrounds himself with Uber-hawks like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, not to mention Israel and Saudi Arabia, to keep the deal alive.
Trump’s strategy is to exercise “maximum pressure,” seeking to bend Iran to his will, and forcing it back to the negotiating table. But “if Iran pursues further brinkmanship in response to US provocation, European Union member states may decide they have no choice but to embrace the Trump administration's containment strategy,” to avoid a break with the US. Iran has been accused of attacking oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. Its “increasing aggressiveness has already raised hackles in Israel.” The danger now is that Iran or its proxies in the Middle East will misread the situation and cross a red line.”
The author says “Iran has been understandably frustrated by Europe’s slow progress in launching Instex, a bartering mechanism designed” to facilitate non-USD transactions and non-SWIFT to avoid violating US sanctions. John Bolton is determined to “asphyxiate the Iranian economy, and believes that cutting off any lifelines from Europe is the way to do it.” He and other hawks will exploit Britain’s vulnerable situation and “use all means at their disposal to chip away at European unity,” knowing the UK is eager to secure a trade deal with the US after Brexit.
There is the risk that the US and its allies – Israel and Saudi Arabia – “want to set a trap to lure Iran into a military conflagration.” The protracted shadow war between Israel and Iran has triggered a series of airstrikes on Iranian targets in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, and threats of Hezbollah retaliation. There is fear that Iran’s hardliners might be itching for a fight. They might “feel as though they have gotten nothing from adhering to the nuclear deal, and that the way to build leverage is to become a bigger nuisance.”
What the author worries about is that “if the UK breaks from the EU line, Germany will be the next target for hardliners (in both Iran and the US) to peel off.” Meanwhile, the US might “ramp up its diplomacy” in Central and Eastern Europe, where Trump is popular. Yet European governments considered it unwise to isolate Iran and believed that by engaging with the regime, they could modify its behaviour. They fear that the US cares little about the Transatlantic alliance and is willing to act unilaterally through the exercise of its military power.
To avert these risks, Macron is “asking Trump to consider sanctions exemptions if Iran complies once more with the nuclear deal by curtailing its enrichment activities and opens the door to further talks with the West.” At the same time, European leaders must persuade Iran not to cross their red line. Iranian attacks on European interests could force the EU to take sides, giving up on supporting the deal.
The author says, “Macron’s proposal for a new credit line to Iran could strengthen the position of Iranian moderates, but his credibility in Iran will be diminished if the Europeans cannot get Instex up and running.” Europe needs to “keep a close eye on the Persian Gulf. Even if they aren’t going to organize a joint naval force, they should be developing a de-escalation strategy in case the US or Iran provokes a confrontation. Organizing a naval conference that includes Iran could be a prudent first step.”
Ahead of his re-election in 2020, it is not in Trump’s interest to escalate tensions and start a war with Iran. He is surrounded by hawkish advisers, and heavily reliant on pro-Israeli voters who support Benjamin Netanyahu’s anti-Iran views. Trump is also beholden to the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman. Iran is keen on seeing Trump’s defeat at the ballot box next year. Indeed, the whole world would be safer without him.
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Petey Bee Aug 29, 2019

The headline is bitterly ironic, if you consider the profound political effects of the refugee wave from the previous episode of western attempts to impose order in Syria and Libya.
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